If you ever needed a reminder of how quickly fortunes can change on the ASX, look no further than 4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX).
At the start of 2025, this little-known medical imaging company was trading for 48 cents per share. By the end of July, the share price was down 50% and had sunk to just 24 cents, the kind of low that makes even loyal shareholders question their sanity.
Fast-forward to today, and 4DMedical is changing lives, especially for its shareholders.
Its share price has skyrocketed to $2.44, which is a whopping 10x return since the end of July, and a five-bagger for anyone who invested at the start of the year.
To put that into dollar terms, a $10,000 investment in 4DMedical made in January would now be worth $50,000, whilst an investor who invested $10,000 during the July dip could be looking at up to $100,000 today.
For many households, that's the difference between "maybe one day" and "we could actually buy that car and book that Europe trip right now".
But how has 4DMedical become one of the hottest ASX stocks of 2025?
A 5-year struggle snaps into a 10x move
For most of its life on the ASX, 4DMedical has struggled to meet the expectations of the initial IPO excitement. After IPO'ing in 2020 at $1.25 and peaking at $2.60, the company spent years grinding lower and was at one stage down 90% from its highs.
But 2025 finally brought something different: commercial traction.
Investors stopped hearing promises and started seeing proof.
4DMedical delivered a wave of commercially meaningful wins and renewals with world-class institutions like the University of Michigan and Stanford; the addition of CT:VQ to Philips' North American catalogue backed by a $15 million commitment; FDA clearance in September unlocking a US$1.1 billion market; a strategic $10 million investment from ASX giant Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME); a fully underwritten $30.2 million option exercise securing its funding runway; and most recently, Canadian regulatory approval enabling immediate commercial deployment across Canada.
Each milestone reinforced the same message: 4DMedical's technology is not just innovative, it is being adopted, validated, and scaled.
Could 4DMedical be the next Droneshield?
Droneshield Ltd (ASX: DRO) became the most exciting stock on the ASX by dominating a niche with powerful global demand. As positive announcement after positive announcement came in, there seemed to be no limit to investor demand for Droneshield shares.
In its own way, 4DMedical is beginning to exhibit similar characteristics, including a large market opportunity, commercial adoption by US hospitals, and a leading technology platform, all built on the highly scalable software-as-a-service business model.
Is 4DMedical's success guaranteed? Of course not. Commercialisation in healthcare is notoriously difficult.
But investors don't chase certainties; they chase asymmetric upside, and 4DMedical is one of the ASX stocks right now with a genuine shot at turning into something much larger.
Foolish bottom line
4DMedical is no longer just a speculative moonshot; it is becoming a growth company with a credible story, and for early believers, a wealth-changing story.
It has captured investors' imaginations for good reason, but whether it becomes the next Droneshield or not will come down to execution. For the first time since its IPO, it feels like the company's future and its share price are finally moving in the same direction.
