Down 36% in 2025, should you buy CSL shares today?

A leading investment expert offers his outlook for CSL's beaten-down share price.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • CSL shares have dropped 1.8% today, trading at $180.67, contributing to a significant 35.8% drop for the year.
  • The stock has struggled since an August earnings report revealed disappointing influenza vaccine demand and plans to spin off the CSL Seqirus segment.
  • Analyst Elio D’Amato advises caution, highlighting revenue and profit forecast downgrades for FY 2026 and ongoing pressures from integration and restructuring costs.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are sinking today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed on Friday trading for $183.93. In afternoon trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $180.67 apiece, down 1.8%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.6% at this same time.

With today's intraday losses factored in, CSL shares are down a painful 35.8% in 2025. And CSL's dividend payouts won't do much to take the sting out of those losses. The ASX 200 biotech stock currently trades on a 2.5% unfranked trailing dividend yield.

If you've been following along with Australia's third-largest listed company (currently commanding a market cap of just under $88 billion), you'll know that its troubles really began on 19 August.

The stock closed down 16.9% on the day, as investors reacted negatively to the release of CSL's full-year FY 2025 results.

One of the issues that had investors reaching for their sell buttons was the lower-than-expected level of influenza vaccine demand in the United States.

Investors also were caught off guard by management's announcement that the CSL Seqirus segment – one of the world's largest influenza vaccine businesses – was going to be spun off into a separate ASX-listed company.

That plan has since been temporarily put on the back burner as the company waits for improved conditions in the US influenza vaccine market.

Which brings us back to our headline question…

A doctor shrugs and holds his hands out.

Image source: Getty Images

Should you buy the big dip on CSL shares now?

EnviroInvest's Elio D'Amato recently analysed the outlook for the biotech giant's share price (courtesy of The Bull). And he believes there's likely more pain to come before the stock finds solid support.

"I recommended selling CSL in TheBull.com.au in February 2025 after the biotechnology giant posted a lacklustre first half result in fiscal year 2025, in my view," he said.

"The shares have substantially fallen from $261 on February 24. The stock was trading at $178.83 on December 11," D'Amato noted.

And CSL shares certainly weren't helped by management's FY 2026 guidance downgrades.

"CSL recently cut revenue and profit growth forecasts for fiscal year 2026," D'Amato said.

CSL stock closed down 15.9% on 28 October, the day of that announcement. That came after management downgraded CSL's revenue growth guidance to 2% to 3% (from the prior 4% to 5%). And the company's net profit after tax before amortisation (NPATA) growth guidance was reduced to 4% to 7% (from the prior 7% to 10%).

Commenting on his sell recommendation, D'Amato said:

The company's vaccine division Seqirus is under pressure from declining vaccination rates in the United States. Plasma collection remains healthy, but integration costs involving CSL Vifor, a leader in iron deficiency and nephrology, amid restructuring expenses continue to weigh on margins and cash flow, in my view.

D'Amato concluded, "In the absence of near-term catalysts and years of share price stagnation, capital could be better deployed elsewhere until the outlook improves."

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Healthcare Shares

Medical workers examine an x-ray or scan in a hospital laboratory.
Healthcare Shares

Why this red-hot ASX healthcare share keeps climbing

A 1,600% gain hasn't slowed this stock down.

Read more »

A woman smiles at the outlook she sees through binoculars.
Healthcare Shares

How much could the CSL share price rise in the next year?

Can this business deliver very healthy gains from here?

Read more »

Group of scientists cheering in the lab after the company received good news.
Healthcare Shares

Why is this ASX biotech stock blasting higher today?

Investors are backing the biotech's growing commercial and pipeline potential.

Read more »

Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.
Healthcare Shares

Down 30%, should I buy ResMed shares now?

A sharp fall can make investors cautious, but it can also create opportunity when the long-term business remains strong.

Read more »

A group of people in a corporate setting do a collective high five.
Healthcare Shares

3 beaten-down ASX healthcare shares tipped to rise up to 202%

Analysts have a strong buy rating on two of these healthcare stocks, and all three are tipped to have an…

Read more »

A group of people push and shove through the doors of a store, trying to beat the crowd.
Share Market News

Investors are buying CSL shares again. Should you?

Some experts believe that 2026 could mark the low point for the biotech company.

Read more »

A group of young people celebrate and party outside.
Healthcare Shares

If I'd invested $5,000 in 4DMedical shares 12 months ago, guess how much I'd have now!

Can the company's share price keep accelerating even higher? Here's what analysts tip for the next 12 months.

Read more »

Stressed, unhappy, and tired scientist with a headache working on a computer in a lab.
Healthcare Shares

3 reasons I'd buy CSL shares in FY27

It still needs to rebuild trust, but lower expectations and several recovery levers make the shares worth considering.

Read more »