CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are sinking today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed on Friday trading for $183.93. In afternoon trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $180.67 apiece, down 1.8%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.6% at this same time.
With today's intraday losses factored in, CSL shares are down a painful 35.8% in 2025. And CSL's dividend payouts won't do much to take the sting out of those losses. The ASX 200 biotech stock currently trades on a 2.5% unfranked trailing dividend yield.
If you've been following along with Australia's third-largest listed company (currently commanding a market cap of just under $88 billion), you'll know that its troubles really began on 19 August.
The stock closed down 16.9% on the day, as investors reacted negatively to the release of CSL's full-year FY 2025 results.
One of the issues that had investors reaching for their sell buttons was the lower-than-expected level of influenza vaccine demand in the United States.
Investors also were caught off guard by management's announcement that the CSL Seqirus segment – one of the world's largest influenza vaccine businesses – was going to be spun off into a separate ASX-listed company.
That plan has since been temporarily put on the back burner as the company waits for improved conditions in the US influenza vaccine market.
Which brings us back to our headline question…
Should you buy the big dip on CSL shares now?
EnviroInvest's Elio D'Amato recently analysed the outlook for the biotech giant's share price (courtesy of The Bull). And he believes there's likely more pain to come before the stock finds solid support.
"I recommended selling CSL in TheBull.com.au in February 2025 after the biotechnology giant posted a lacklustre first half result in fiscal year 2025, in my view," he said.
"The shares have substantially fallen from $261 on February 24. The stock was trading at $178.83 on December 11," D'Amato noted.
And CSL shares certainly weren't helped by management's FY 2026 guidance downgrades.
"CSL recently cut revenue and profit growth forecasts for fiscal year 2026," D'Amato said.
CSL stock closed down 15.9% on 28 October, the day of that announcement. That came after management downgraded CSL's revenue growth guidance to 2% to 3% (from the prior 4% to 5%). And the company's net profit after tax before amortisation (NPATA) growth guidance was reduced to 4% to 7% (from the prior 7% to 10%).
Commenting on his sell recommendation, D'Amato said:
The company's vaccine division Seqirus is under pressure from declining vaccination rates in the United States. Plasma collection remains healthy, but integration costs involving CSL Vifor, a leader in iron deficiency and nephrology, amid restructuring expenses continue to weigh on margins and cash flow, in my view.
D'Amato concluded, "In the absence of near-term catalysts and years of share price stagnation, capital could be better deployed elsewhere until the outlook improves."
