CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have had a reputation for profit growth over the years. But, the business is now facing headwinds in the US and a potentially slower growth outlook.
The ASX biotech share has carved out a good position in immunoglobulin (IG) products, blood plasma collection centres and vaccines.
Analysts are not convinced the business can continue growing profit as strongly for the foreseeable future.
With uncertainty in the air, let's take a look at how much profit analysts are projecting the business could produce in the coming years.
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FY26
Despite all of the difficulties the business is facing, the broker UBS is projecting that the company's net profit could rise in 2026.
UBS noted that at a recent capital markets day, CSL expects high single digits IG sales growth in FY27 and FY28, with the broker predicting 5% growth. The market is expected to see mid-single-digit to high-single-digit growth, along with market share gains of between 1% to 2%.
The broker noted that market share gains in IG are expected to come from new hospital sales force, pre-filled syringe adoption and enhanced tender capabilities.
UBS also highlighted that high single-digit sales growth is expected in hemophilia, AHC and HAE.
The broker is also expecting that the net profit margin could increase 100 basis points (1.00%) across FY27 and FY28 due to lower costs of goods sold as well as operating leverage.
In FY26, US$200 million is expected to be achieved of its cost saving target of US$550 million. Separately, CSL is targeting an 11% reduction in addressable manufacturing costs by FY28.
CSL believes it's well-positioned to deal with US tariffs and other headwinds related to the US with "likely plasma exclusion and its growing US investment".
UBS also said that Seqirus (the vaccine business) is outperforming in a difficult US market, with a significant drop in US vaccination rates. But, market share gains in Europe are helping offset some of the pain. UBS said there is room for a recovery because flu doses in FY26 are around 30% below pre-COVID levels, while other large markets are at pre-COVID levels.
There are a lot of moving parts with CSL, which are all under scrutiny amid all of the CSL share price pain.
Despite all of the above, the business is projected to grow its net profit to US$3.46 billion in FY26.
FY27
Profit is expected to continue to rise in the 2027 financial year for shareholders.
UBS projects that owners of CSL shares could see the company's net profit climb to $3.79 billion in FY27.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could get even better for CSL, with UBS forecasting that the company's net profit could increase to $4.17 billion.
FY29
The FY29 net profit could climb even further for shareholders, according to UBS, to $4.5 billion.
FY30
If UBS is correct with its projections, then CSL could achieve a net profit of $4.7 billion in FY30. This implies a possible rise of net profit by 38% between FY26 and FY30. Time will tell how close these projections are to reality, but they are promising.
The broker has a buy rating on the business, with a price target of $275. That suggests a possible rise of almost 50% in the next year.
