Why CSL shares now look 'massively oversold'

A leading investment expert says ASX investors have a rare chance to buy CSL shares at a discount.

| More on:
Red buy button on an apple keyboard with a finger on it representing asx tech shares to buy today

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • CSL shares remain down 35.2% over the past year, impacted by concerns over vaccine sales and strategic changes.
  • Analyst John Athanasiou from Red Leaf Securities suggests CSL shares are oversold, presenting a buying opportunity in a strong global plasma therapy market.
  • With share buybacks, a rising dividend, and growth strategies in place, CSL is positioned for strong potential upside.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed yesterday trading for $182.30. In early afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $183.49 apiece, up 0.7%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is just about flat at this same time.

Unfortunately for longer-term stockholders, CSL shares remain down 35.2% over the past 12 months. Losses that will have only been modestly eased by CSL's two dividend payouts over the year. At the current share price, the ASX 200 stock trades on an unfranked 2.5% trailing dividend yield.

As you may be aware, most of the selling has occurred since market close on 18 August. On 19 August, shares closed down a sharp 16.9% following the release of CSL's full-year FY 2025 results.

Atop revealing sluggish influenza vaccine uptakes in the United States, one of the biggest concerns investors appeared to have was CSL's announcement that it intended to spin off one of its Seqirus segment – one of the world's largest influenza vaccine businesses – into a separate ASX-listed company.

Management has since temporarily mothballed the Seqirus spin-off plans as they wait for conditions in the US influenza vaccine market to improve.

With all that said, having reviewed the recent carnage, Red Leaf Securities' John Athanasiou believes investors have way oversold CSL shares (courtesy of The Bull).

A rare opportunity to buy CSL shares

"This biotechnology company is massively oversold, in our view," said Athanasiou. "CSL offers a rare chance to buy a global plasma therapy powerhouse at a discount."

Digging into the strengths CSL shares offer, Athanasiou said:

Its $1.5 billion US investment strengthens the core Behring business and secures long term immunoglobulin supply. Its planned transformational restructuring is expected to unlock between $500 million and $550 million over three years, turbocharging cash flow.

Looking ahead, Athanasiou concluded, "Share buy-backs, a rising dividend and secular demand tailwinds for chronic therapies point to significant upside if management can successfully execute its strategy."

Is the ASX 200 stock already on the comeback trail?

CSL shares hit a five-year-plus closing low of $170.77 on 29 October. The stock has now gained 7.5% from that low.

The biotech company looks to have helped boost investor sentiment following its Capital Markets Day on 5 November.

Management used the opportunity to highlight that CSL Seqirus had a 42% share of the global influenza vaccine market in 2025.

They also noted that, should the world see another pandemic outbreak, CSL would be able to pump out 500 million pandemic doses within four months.

In that scenario, CSL said it would expect to earn more than $3.5 billion in pandemic revenue.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Healthcare Shares

A woman with strawberry blonde hair has a huge smile on her face and fist pumps the air having seen good news on her phone.
Healthcare Shares

Why are Mesoblast shares jumping 10% to a 52-week high?

This biotech is hitting new highs on Friday. Let's find out why.

Read more »

a group of surgeons in full surgery dress including masks, gloves and head coverings stands together with arms folded and smiling eyes as if happy with the outcome of their efforts.
Healthcare Shares

Ansell shares tumble to a 3-month low. Is this a buying opportunity?

Ansell shares have slid to a 3-month low. Could oversold signals point to a buying opportunity for long-term investors?

Read more »

Female scientist working in a laboratory.
Healthcare Shares

These three biotechs show how the sector can produce huge outsized gains, but are they still good value?

These drug developers' shares are trading near 12-month highs.

Read more »

A medical specialist holds a red heart connected via technology and artificial intelligence.
Healthcare Shares

This biotech is approaching 20-bagger status within a year and the good news continues to come

This company has just won approval to go ahead with a key clinical trial.

Read more »

An investor sits at a table in front of her laptop with a party hat on her head and a cake next to her symbolising new year's eve but the 4DS Memory share price is plunging so she looks very disappointed and depressed
Healthcare Shares

$5 billion ASX 200 healthcare stock tumbling on CEO exit

Investors are bidding down the ASX 200 healthcare giant on Thursday. Let’s see why.

Read more »

woman testing substance in laboratory dish, csl share price
Share Market News

After a 73% surge this ASX healthcare share looks far from done

Brokers are upbeat, and some see possible gains of 90% in 2026.

Read more »

Female scientist working in a laboratory.
Healthcare Shares

Which biotech's shares are surging higher on US patent news?

Investors like what they see from this drug company.

Read more »

Medical workers examine an xray or scan in a hospital laboratory.
Healthcare Shares

This biotech company's shares are on a tear – again – after another contract win

A new contract with a prestigious US institution spells good news for shareholders.

Read more »