Judo Capital Holdings Limited (ASX: JDO) shares are trading in the green on Tuesday morning. At the time of writing, the shares are 1.17% higher, trading at $1.47 each. Over the month, the ASX bank stock's shares are 16.65% lower. They're now 25.36% below where they were this time last year.
Judo Capital Holdings is the parent company of Judo Bank. The bank specialises in lending to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). It also provides loans, lines of credit, and other tailored financial products. As of November 2025, Judo Capital Holdings has a market cap of A$1.63 billion ,which makes it a lot smaller than the big four banks. Over the past year, the Judo share price has been on a rollercoaster ride. Here's why.
What happened to the ASX bank stock this year?
In late April, Judo Bank's share price crashed 19% after releasing its third-quarter update. The ASX bank stock revealed it has seen a slowdown in performance. This led investors to hit the sell button.
The bank's share price gradually increased after it announced a strong outlook and improved profit expectations for its FY25 results. The share price spiked again in October when the FY25 result was finally announced, showing robust lending growth and profit ahead, along with an optimistic FY26 forecast. The Judo share price has tumbled again since.
So, why could it be the best buy for 2026?
While the ASX bank stocks' share price has suffered a significant decline throughout 2025, Judo Bank has had a strong start to FY26 and looks set to continue strengthening.
At its annual general meeting (AGM) last week, the bank said lending momentum had remained strong over the first quarter of FY26. The company stated that it was confident it would achieve FY26 guidance of $180-$190 million and meet its net interest margin guidance of 3% to 3.1%. Managing director Chris Bayliss said the bank has a "clear and simple strategy" to be Australia's most trusted SME business bank.
What do the analysts think?
Analysts and investors were pleased with the latest AGM update. Analyst consensus appears to be that the bank's shares are significantly undervalued and that there is likely to be a substantial upside ahead.
Macquarie has an outperform rating and $1.90 price target on Judo Bank shares. This implies a 29.52% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
UBS is more bullish on the stock. It also has a buy rating on Judo shares but a higher $2.20 price target. This implies a potential 49.7% upside ahead for investors. The broker is pleased with the bank's latest AGM announcement and suggested that Judo's position as a high-growth ASX stock within the SME lending sector offers a potential scarcity premium in the Australian banking industry.
E&P Capital's Oliver Coulon also thinks the shares have a way to run. He recently said that the company's stock price has been "very weak" since it announced its full-year results in August and has a valuation on the company of $2.31 per share. This implied a potential 57.1% upside for investors, at the time of writing.
