Down 20% in a month, this ASX 200 stock is a buy according to Morgans

Is it time to buy low on this materials stock?

| More on:
Smiling man sits in front of a graph on computer while using his mobile phone.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • James Hardie Industries has experienced a challenging year, with its share price dropping almost 52% in the past year, and 20% in the last month. 
  • Morgans suggests the stock offers significant upside, noting that recent results were more positive than expected, indicating potential stabilisation. 
  • With a buy recommendation, Morgans sets a target price of $35.50, indicating a 31.92% upside from the current price. 

James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) is an ASX 200 materials stock that has had a tough year. 

The company is a global leading producer and marketer of fibre cement building products. It is also a major supplier of fibre gypsum and cement-bonded boards in Europe.

This week, the company had two key announcements concerning its leadership.  

First, the appointment of Ryan Lada as the Company's Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately. Mr. Lada succeeds Rachel Wilson, who has decided to step down after two years in her role.

Second, the appointment of Nigel Stein as Chair of the James Hardie Board of Directors. 

Despite the change in leadership, this ASX 200 stock continued to see its share price fall. 

In the last month, its share price is down almost 20%. 

This includes a drop of almost 4% yesterday. 

Its share price is down almost 52% in the last year. 

Time to buy low?

After falling significantly this past year, the team at Morgans seems to believe this ASX 200 stock now offers significant upside. 

In a note out of the broker yesterday, it said the 2QFY26 results were incrementally more positive than previously anticipated. 

Morgans said an upgraded guidance reflects a c.6% organic decline (vs pcp), as a challenging environment sees volume declines exceed price increases. 

However, this is better than feared and may prove to be a bottoming in the cycle as demand stabilises. 

JHX is trading on c.17.1x FY26F as the business navigates its acquisition missteps, earnings downgrades and a challenging consumer environment in North America (NA). However, at EPS of c.U$1.04/sh in FY26 we see upside from both earnings and an undemanding PER (ave PER. 20x).

Target price upside for this ASX 200 stock

Based on this guidance, the broker has a buy recommendation and $35.50 target price.

From yesterday's closing price of $26.91, this indicates an upside of 31.92%. 

Morgans aren't the only broker suggesting this ASX 200 stock is undervalued. 

Yesterday, the Motley Fool's Samantha Menzies reported that Macquarie has upgraded its 12-month price target to $41.70 (previously $40.60). 

This indicates more than 50% upside. 

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Broker looking at the share price.
Broker Notes

Broker ratings on 6 ASX shares about to join the ASX 200

These 6 companies will enter the ASX 200 in the December quarter rebalance. Should you buy them?

Read more »

A happy elderly woman smiles and cheers as she looks at good investment news on her laptop.
Broker Notes

Macquarie forecasts this $3.4 billon ASX healthcare share is set surge 33%

Macquarie tips material outperformance from this ASX healthcare share in 2026.

Read more »

Man looking at digital holograms of graphs, charts, and data.
Broker Notes

3 reasons this ASX 300 tech stock is forecast to leap 83% in 2026

A leading broker expects some outsized returns from this ASX 300 tech share. Let’s see why.

Read more »

gold share price represented by speeding golden bullet
Broker Notes

Why this surging ASX All Ords gold stock is tipped to rocket another 233%

A leading broker expects outsized gains from this ASX All Ords gold stock. But not without risk.

Read more »

A blockchain investor sits at his desk with a laptop computer open and a phone checking information from a booklet in a home office setting.
Broker Notes

3 buy-rated ASX 300 shares at 52-week lows

They've fallen far over the past 12 months but have buy ratings from the experts.

Read more »

Two happy excited friends in euphoria mood after winning in a bet with a smartphone in hand.
Broker Notes

Bell Potter names more of the best ASX 200 shares to buy in December

These are best buys according to the broker. Here's what it is saying about them.

Read more »

A young man pointing up looking amazed, indicating a surging share price movement for an ASX company
Broker Notes

These ASX 200 shares could rise 30% to 40% in 2026

Looking for big returns? Analysts think these shares could beat the market.

Read more »

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.
Broker Notes

Analysts name 3 ASX shares to buy this week

Analysts have good things to say about these shares.

Read more »