Should you buy the roaring rebound in Domino's shares?

A leading investment expert delivers his verdict on the outlook for Domino's surging shares.

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Key points

  •  Domino's shares have surged 65.4% since early October.
  • The share price increase is partly attributed to bargain hunters interested in the company's turnaround initiatives and speculation about a high-value takeover, though the latter was denied by Domino's.
  • Despite the recent gains, Morgans’ Damien Nguyen advises holding rather than buying due to near-term challenges such as cost inflation and margin pressures, while acknowledging Domino's strong brand and long-term growth potential.

If you've been keeping an eye on the charts, you'll likely have noticed the roaring comeback staged by Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) shares since early October.

That's despite shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fast food pizza retailer closing down 5.29% on Tuesday, ending the day at $21.67 each.

Just what kind of rebound are we talking about?

Well, at the recent 7 October closing lows, you could have picked up Domino's shares for $13.31 each. Meaning at yesterday's close, the ASX 200 stock is up a whopping 63% in only five weeks.

Or enough to turn a $5,000 investment into $8,140.5.

While that means recent investors should be sitting on some outsized gains, Domino's stock remains down 29% since this time last year.

Although those losses will have been modestly eased by the 77 cents per share in unfranked dividends Domino's paid eligible shareholders over this time.

At Tuesday's closing price, this sees Domino's trading on an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 3.55%.

What's been driving the ASX 200 pizza retailer higher?

There's no single, clear indicator to explain the meteoric rebound in Domino's shares since early October.

But with shares having tumbled 55% in 2025 as at 7 October, I believe the stock has benefited from bargain hunters with a longer-term investment horizon eyeing the company's turnaround initiatives.

The stock also got a big boost on 28 October following media speculations about a takeover deal from Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc (NYSE: BCSF). That deal was reported to value Domino's at $4 billion, which was around 166% higher than Domino's market cap at the time.

Domino's, however, was quick to dispel the takeover rumours.

"Domino's confirms that, as far as it is aware, it has not received any proposal from Bain Capital or had any communication with that organisation," the company stated.

Which brings us back to our headline question…

Should you buy Domino's shares today?

Morgans' Damien Nguyen recently ran his slide rule over the pizza retailer (courtesy of The Bull).

"The fast food giant remains a strong global brand with proven digital capabilities and a long-term growth runway through store expansion and technology leadership," Nguyen noted.

He added, "However, near term challenges, such as cost inflation, softer consumer demand and margin pressure limit upside potential."

But Nguyen isn't ready to pull the buy trigger on Domino's shares just yet.

He concluded:

Operational initiatives in pricing and cost control should stabilise earnings. It was recently trading broadly in line with historical valuation multiples. The company offers a balanced risk and reward profile, so we recommend long-term investors continue to hold DMP.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino's Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino's Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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