The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has had a painful November 2025 to date, as the chart below shows.
Over the long-term, owning CBA shares has been a positive investment. However, the short-term has been a painful ride.
With the bank still trading at a relatively high price/earnings (P/E) ratio and high price to book ratio, it needed to demonstrate strong profit generation in its FY26 first quarter numbers. This didn't eventuate, which i'll get into later.
First, let's take a look at how far a $20,000 investment has declined.
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Pain for owners of CBA shares
The pre-open price on Monday 10 November 2025 was $175.91, representing a weekly decline of 10.6%.
That means a $20,000 investment has now become worth approximately $17,880. In other words, a fall of more than $2,100 if someone had $20,000 invested in CBA shares a week ago.
Of course, it's normal for there to be occasional volatility on the ASX share market. However, this is a very large decline for a business with a market capitalisation of well over $250 billion, according to the ASX.
What has caused the decline for the ASX bank share?
The bank reported a cash net profit of around 2.6% billion. This was only 1% higher than the quarterly average of the second half of FY25.
When UBS saw the result, the broker wrote:
Quarterly results have historically been unpredictable, making it challenging to form a definitive view on this release due to limited information. However, the headline figures indicate that CBA is delivering results broadly in line with expectations for 1H 26, as reflected in consensus estimates and UBSe forecasts. The 6.1% QoQ increase in costs is somewhat surprising, even excluding notable items, as is the decline in the CET1 ratio to 11.75%, compared to the 1H 26 consensus estimate of 12.3%.
Further credit RWA optimization at CBA appears limited relative to peers, given the substantial progress already made by the bank. We believe these results could impact the stock's performance. Over the past month, CBA's share price has risen 3.91%, outperforming NAB and WBC but lagging ANZ, which gained 8.95%. Given the current valuation, it would appear perfection is implicitly expected.
Broker UBS has a price target of $125 on the CBA share price, implying a possible fall of another 20% over the next year.
The broker is predicting that the bank could generate $10.75 billion of net profit in FY26, which could be a key influence on the CBA share price within the next 12 months.
