Orica shares have soared 40% this year on record profit. Can they keep going?

Expectations are high, but this growth story could still have legs.

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Key points

  • Record profit: Orica reported its highest earnings in 13 years.
  • Shareholder returns ramping up: The company lifted its full-year dividend by 21% to 57 cents per share and expanded its share buy-back program to $500 million.
  • Brokers stay positive: RBC and Jefferies both highlighted favourable market conditions, earnings momentum, a strong Orica’s balance sheet and capital discipline as factors that reinforce the long-term outlook.

Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI) has been one of 2025's quiet outperformers. The stock has climbed roughly 40% this year, outpacing both the ASX 200 and many of its peers.

The mining services company capped off that rally this week with its highest profit in 13 years, reporting EBIT of $992 million and strong growth across all segments.

But with the result broadly in line with what the market had been expecting, the share price has risen just 1.18% today (as of the time of writing).

So, can this newly revitalised ASX 200 stock keep going?

Brokers were already bullish heading in

The record FY25 result largely validated the optimism shown by analysts heading into the announcement. Both Jefferies and RBC Capital Markets had flagged strong momentum in Orica's key markets, underpinned by higher explosives demand, strong gold and copper exposure, and improved industry discipline.

Jefferies, which has a Buy rating on Orica shares, highlighted that Orica's turnaround is still in its early stages, with sustainable double-digit EPS growth achievable over the next three years.

RBC Capital Markets also shared an optimistic view highlighting favourable macro conditions and the growing contribution from Orica's Digital Solutions and Specialty Chemicals businesses.

Both brokers pointed to Orica's strengthened balance sheet and renewed capital management discipline as favourable themes and that was clearly evident again in today's report.

More dividends and share buy-backs

Orica has rewarded shareholders with a final dividend of 32 cents per share, taking the full-year payout to 57 cents, up 21% from last year's 47 cents. That's the highest annual dividend since 2012 and a sign that management is confident in the company's cash generation and outlook.

Management also increased the ongoing share buy-back program by $100m, bringing the total value of the program to $500m.

Based on today's share price of $23.06, the dividend represents a trailing yield of roughly 2.5%, which, when combined with Orica's ongoing share buy-back, highlights its renewed commitment to shareholder returns.

The dividend payout ratio sits at around 50% of underlying earnings, leaving room for future increases if profit momentum continues in FY26 and beyond.

The bottom line

After rallying 40% in 2025, Orica's strong FY25 performance shows a business that's delivering on promises.

With momentum in its core operations, rising dividends, and capital management driving returns, Orica has transformed from a turnaround story into a steady-growth industrial compounder.

Motley Fool contributor Kevin Gandiya has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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