CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are pushing higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed yesterday trading for $178.12. In afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $179.27 apiece, up 0.7%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.2% at this same time.
While today's outperformance will be welcomed by stockholders, unfortunately, CSL shares remain down 37.5% over 12 months. Losses that will only be slightly mitigated by the $4.52 a share in unfranked dividends the biotech company paid out over the full year.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Following on this big retrace, is the ASX 200 healthcare giant now a buy?
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Should you buy the big dip on CSL shares today?
Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 stock (courtesy of The Bull).
"CSL's share price has been slashed following downgrades amid announcing a company restructure at its full year results in August," he said.
Indeed, ASX investors appear to have gotten the jitters after CSL reported its intentions to spin off one of its three business divisions. On 19 August, management revealed the plan to demerge CSL's Seqirus segment – one of the world's largest influenza vaccine businesses – into a separate ASX-listed company.
While that spin-off remains in play, it has since been pushed back until market conditions in the United States influenza vaccine market improve.
"The share price plunged from $271.32 on August 18 to trade at $178 on November 6," Gable said. But he isn't ready to wade in and buy CSL shares just yet.
"This biopharmaceutical giant recently cut revenue and profit growth forecasts for fiscal year 2026," he said in issuing his sell recommendation on the stock.
When the company reported its full-year FY 2025 results on 19 August, it forecast FY 2026 revenue growth between 4% to 5% (in constant currency). Management said they expected net profit after tax before amortisation (NPATA), excluding non-recurring restructuring costs, to increase between 7% to 10%.
But on 28 October, CSL shares closed down 15.9% after management downgraded FY 2026 revenue growth guidance to 2% to 3%. Management also cut their FY 2026 NPATA growth forecast to 4% to 7%.
Connecting the dots, Gable concluded:
In our view, CSL is at risk of seeing its premium rating diminish further until investors are confident the company can reliably deliver consistent earnings growth. From a charting perspective, CSL has broken below a few major support levels, suggesting the company may be entering a downtrend phase.
