Owning Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares is usually rewarding when it comes to dividends. But, capital growth is also important and earnings are a key driver of that.
If net profit rises over time, then the share price can climb too.
Investing in resources businesses like Woodside comes with plenty of unpredictability due to changing resource prices amid shifts in supply and demand.
However, when investing at the right time, resources businesses can deliver compelling medium-term returns.
So, let's take a look at how Woodside's net profit could develop in the next few years.
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FY25
The Woodside financial year follows the calendar year, so the 2025 financial year isn't quite over yet.
Near-term earnings usually have the biggest impact on the market's thoughts on a business, so what the business reports next February could play an important role in what happens next with the Woodside share price.
After seeing the quarterly update for the three months to September 2025, UBS noted that production increased 5% and sales revenue grew by 11%, ahead of market expectations.
Production strength came from another consistent quarter in Senegal, where Sangomar delivered on its nameplate capacity, plus there was stronger-than-expected production at Pluto and the North West Shelf LNG projects.
The broker UBS predicts the business could generate US$2.06 billion of net profit in FY25.
FY26
The net profit of Woodside could take a significant hit in FY26, falling to US$1.24 billion, according to the profit projection from UBS.
That's suggesting a possible decline of around US$800 million, which is a large drop, and could also come with a large fall in the dividend per share. That could be a headwind for Woodside shares.
FY27
The Woodside net profit is forecast to rise in FY27 and start recovering after the big hit in the 2026 financial year.
UBS currently predicts the ASX energy share could make US$1.87 billion of net profit in the 2027 financial year, representing an increase of just over US$600 million.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could be the best year of this series of projections, depending on how resource prices develop.
UBS forecasts that the Woodside net profit could climb to US$2.24 billion in FY28, which would be a rise of close to US$400 million representing a full profit recovery from the prior few years.
FY29
In the final year of these projections, Woodside's net profit is expected to return to 2025 levels.
The 2029 financial year is forecast to see net profit generation of $2 billion, representing a year over year decline of approximately $200 million in FY29.
Currently, UBS has a neutral rating on the business, with a Woodside share price target of $23.60. That implies a fall of almost 10% over the next year.
