The ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price will be in focus on Monday as the bank reports its full-year FY25 results.
Investors already have a taste of what's coming after ANZ pre-announced a raft of one-off charges, and brokers agree the headline numbers will look soft, even if the underlying story is more stable.
A messy set of results
ANZ has already warned that 2H25 statutory and cash profit will be hit by $1.1 billion (post-tax) in significant items. These include the impairment of its PT Bank Indonesia stake (A$285 million), staff redundancies (A$585 million pre-tax), ASIC penalties (A$271 million pre-tax), Suncorp Bank migration costs (A$97 million), and the closure of Cashrewards (A$78 million).
Together, they'll trim around 19 basis points from the bank's CET1 capital.
In short, the result will look ugly at first glance, but most analysts see it as short-term pain for long-term gain.
What are the brokers saying?
Analysts at Macquarie say that ANZ remains their preferred stock in the banking sector and that it looks cheap compared to its peers, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA). They expect modest upside to ANZ's margins thanks to improving wholesale funding conditions. Macquarie has a share price target of $34 for ANZ.
Morgan Stanley described ANZ's pre-earnings announcement update as "largely as expected" and believes ANZ's result has been partly de-risked by the disclosure of significant items and new financial targets. Its analysts see focus shifting to FY26 cost guidance, capital position, and institutional banking performance. Morgan Stanley also has a share price target of $34 for ANZ.
Jefferies trimmed its FY25 EPS forecast by 7.5% after the one-off charges were announced, but noted the changes are mostly non-cash and don't affect valuation materially. Jeffries has a share price target of $31.60 for ANZ.
BofA Securities retained a buy rating, lifting its price target to $39. It views ANZ as executing a transformation under new CEO Nuno Matos and expects FY25 EPS of $2.04, while forecasting a rebound in FY26 EPS to $2.53.
JPMorgan remains neutral on ANZ, cutting its FY25 EPS by 7% to $1.94, but also seeing an EPS recovery in FY26 to $2.30, with dividends steady at $1.66 per share.
Foolish bottom line
Monday's result will confirm what investors already know about FY25 earnings being weighed down by restructuring, remediation, and write-offs. But the real story will be whether management can convince the market that 2026 marks a cleaner, more efficient ANZ.
If costs come down and capital stays solid, the market could soon start focusing less on the mess and more on the momentum.
