Why this ASX 200 stock could rise 40%

Bell Potter sees big potential returns for investors from this tech stock.

| More on:
A young man pointing up looking amazed, indicating a surging share price movement for an ASX company

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Light & Wonder shares jumped 8% after a strong quarterly update, with Bell Potter betting on even more gains thanks to better-than-expected earnings driven by margin expansion in its gaming segments.
  • The company exceeded earnings expectations significantly, and management reaffirming its full-year guidance suggests a promising fourth quarter is on the horizon for this ASX 200 stock.
  • Bell Potter has upped its price target to $176.00, hinting at a potential 41% upside, citing Light & Wonder's strong growth at a reasonable price strategy as an attractive choice for investors seeking solid returns.

Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW) shares were on form on Thursday,

The ASX 200 stock finished the day 8% higher after investors responded positively to its quarterly update.

The good news is that this could be the start of even greater gains according to one leading broker.

Let's see what it is saying about the gaming technology company following its update.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter notes that the ASX 200 stock outperformed expectations during the third quarter of FY 2025, with earnings coming in ahead of consensus estimates and its own forecasts thanks to margin expansion. It said:

LNW reported Adj. EBITDA 4% above both BPe and VA consensus, respectively. Profit & loss: LNW reported +3% YoY revenue growth to US$841m above BPe of US$839m and below consensus of US$850m, supported by +4% YoY growth in Gaming (BPe +2%), -4% YoY decline in SciPlay (BPe +2%) and +16% YoY growth in iGaming (BPe +14%). Adj. EBITDA was US$375m up 18% YoY. Adj. NPATA of US$153m was up +25% YoY (+14/+10% beat vs. BPe/VA). The Nth. Am. install base grew by 0.87k units (incl. Grover) to 47.24k, behind BPe and consensus expectations. The beat to consensus was driven by margin expansion in Gaming and iGaming.

It was also pleased to see management reaffirm its full year earnings guidance ahead of the seasonally strong fourth quarter. It adds:

The company has reaffirmed its FY25 AEBITDA guidance range of US$1,430-1,470m, implying a required growth rate of 25-38% in 4Q25e. Q4 is seasonally the strongest quarter for LNW (historically generates 27% of full year EBITDA) and was impacted in 4Q24 by Dragon Train related costs.

ASX 200 stock tipped to rise strongly

According to the note, Bell Potter has reaffirmed its buy rating on Light & Wonder's shares with an improved price target of $176.00.

Based on its current share price of $124.85, this implies potential upside of 41% for investors over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter believes that the ASX 200 stock is a great example of growth at a reasonable price (GARP). It explains:

We rate LNW a Buy over the medium to long term due to a compelling GARP profile relative to the ASX 100 and ALL (38% discount to EV / EBITA, pre 3Q25 upgrades). In our view, the key catalyst in closing this discount is the ASX sole listing, which we believe will weigh positively on the stock after November 2025. In the short term we acknowledge risks to LNW including: a worsening in the ALL litigation matter (less likely, in our view); and market disruption due to the Nasdaq delisting.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Light & Wonder. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Light & Wonder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Technology Shares

Soldier in military uniform using laptop for drone controlling.
Technology Shares

This ASX drone tech stock just hit a record high. Here's why investors are piling in

Elsight shares hit a record high as strong momentum, revenue growth, and insider buying attract investor attention.

Read more »

A woman on a green background points a finger at graphic images of molecules, a rocket, light bulbs and scientific symbols as she smiles.
Technology Shares

2 magnificent ASX tech stocks to buy in 2026

Quietly essential, globally relevant, and built for the long term. These are two ASX tech stocks I’m watching closely in…

Read more »

A child dressed in army clothes looks through his binoculars with leaves and branches on his head.
Opinions

Up 735% in a year! The red-hot EOS share price is smashing Droneshield and other defence stocks

Investor interest in defence stocks has boomed.

Read more »

It's raining cash for this man, as he throws money into the air with a big smile on his face.
Technology Shares

Up 700% in 12 months! Why this ASX tech stock just raised $150m

This high-flying stock is raising funds. But why?

Read more »

A montage of planes, ships and trucks, representing ASX transport shares
Technology Shares

Is Wisetech a buy, sell or hold at current levels?

Jarden has run the numbers on the Wisetech share price.

Read more »

a uranium-fuelled mushroom shaped cloud explosion surrounded by a circle of rainbow light with a symbol of an atom to one side of it.
Opinions

What's next for the best-performing ASX 200 stock of 2025?

This ASX stock boomed in 2026.

Read more »

A young man talks tech on his phone while looking at a laptop. A financial graph is superimposed across the image.
Opinions

3 reasons Xero shares are a screaming buy right now

Here's what I expect from the tech stock this year.

Read more »

Piggybank with an army helmet and a drone next to it, symbolising a rising DroneShield share price.
Technology Shares

New all-time high. Why this ASX defence stock is flying again today

EOS shares jump to a record high on defence tailwinds and a broker upgrade.

Read more »