Down 40%: Is the CSL share price dirt cheap and a bargain buy?

Let's see what two leading analysts are saying about the biotech giant.

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Key points

  • CSL shares are down 40% year-to-date after experiencing a further 5% drop today.
  • Bell Potter maintains a hold rating with a reduced price target of $195.00, citing current trading below historical averages but expressing caution due to near-term uncertainties.
  • Morgans sees CSL as undervalued and retains a buy rating with a price target of $249.51, suggesting a 48% upside as the current valuation overshoots potential risks.

The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price is having another difficult session on Wednesday.

At the time of writing, the biotechnology giant's shares are down a further 5% to $168.80.

This follows an even more significant decline on Tuesday in response to a guidance downgrade at its annual general meeting.

In light of today's move, the company's shares are now down 40% since the start of the year.

This is astonishing given its reputation as one of the most reliable and highest quality companies that the Australian share market has to offer.

Let's see if analysts think this is a buying opportunity or whether investors should stay clear of the struggling company for the time being.

Bell Potter sticks with hold rating

The team at Bell Potter continues to sit on the fence with this one. This morning, in response to its update, the broker has reaffirmed its hold rating with a reduced price target of $195.00 (from $230.00).

Based on the current CSL share price, this price target still implies potential upside of 15.5% for investors over the next 12 months, which isn't bad for a hold recommendation. Bell Potter said:

CSL is trading at an underlying PE of ~17x in FY26 and ~16x in FY27 based on our latest forecasts, well below its historical average, but slightly higher than the international biopharma peer average of ~14x CY26e.

We had previously been cautious on CSL's near-term outlook, largely driven by what we think will be a tough 1H26 result for Ig, and today's update only adds further uncertainty to other franchises (Seqirus, albumin). The capital markets day is next week, with the agenda less clear after the Seqirus de-merger has been put on hold.

Morgans says CSL share price is undervalued

Over at Morgans, its analysts think investors should be taking advantage of the weakness in the CSL share price.

This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on CSL's shares with a reduced price target of $249.51 (from $293.83). This suggests that upside of 48% is possible between now and this time next year.

Morgans thinks its current valuation is unjustified. It said:

Despite the majority of the business "tracking to plan", FY26 cc guidance had been downgraded (2-3% at revenue and NPATA mid-points), mainly reflecting continued declines in US influenza vaccination rates, although Chinese government cost containment affecting albumin demand was also flagged. While management is confident it can limit the impact of the latter to 1HFY26 via mitigation measures, ongoing uncertainty in the US influenza vaccine market has seen FY27-28 NPATA growth expectations moderate (to HSD from DD) and delay the demerger of Seqirus (prior FY26).

Although it remains challenging to know when US influenza vaccination rates will stabilise, we believe the risk of a permanently lower base is being over-priced, with Seqirus and Vifor marked down, with even Behring trading below peers and well under its long-term average, which we see as unjustified. We lower FY26-28 net profit forecasts by up to 14.3%, with our PT decreasing to A$249.51 (from A$293.83). BUY.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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