CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are having a day to forget today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed yesterday trading for $211.42. In late afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are changing hands for $179.99, down 14.9%.
Today's sharp fall in CSL shares comes following a market update this morning, which saw the company downgrade its full-year FY 2026 revenue and profit growth guidance. Today's selling continues the difficult run for stockholders that began when the company released its FY 2025 results on 19 August.
Indeed, shares in the ASX 200 biotech stock are now down 33.7% since market close on 18 August.
So, is now a good time to buy the big dip, or is it best to let the dust settle first?
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CSL shares: Buy, sell, or hold?
MPC Markets' Jonathan Tacadena ran his slide rule over the company last Friday, before the release of today's market update (courtesy of The Bull).
"Shares in this global biotechnology giant were slashed after the company posted full year results on August 19," said Tacadena, who placed a hold recommendation on CSL shares prior to today's sharp sell-down and downgraded full-year guidance.
Tacadena noted:
The company generated revenue and profit growth, but investors reacted negatively to a company restructure that includes a planned demerger of the Seqirus influenza vaccines business amid the United States announcing steep tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals.
He added, "The shares fell from $271.32 on August 18 to close at $194.23 on September 26. The shares have partially recovered to trade at $218.14 on October 23."
But CSL shares could find support amid the company's ongoing share buyback.
Tacadena concluded, "We suggest investors continue holding as we expect it to test a new resistance level of $240. The company is undertaking a $750 million on-market share buyback in fiscal year 2026."
If the ASX 200 stock does recover to test resistance of $240 per share, that would represent a 33.3% upside from current levels.
What did the ASX 200 biotech company report today?
As mentioned up top, investors are bidding down CSL shares amid material guidance downgrades.
When the company released its results on 19 August, management forecast FY 2026 revenue growth in the range of 4% to 5% (in constant currency). And net profit after tax before amortisation (NPATA) excluding non-recurring restructuring costs was forecast to grow 7% to 10%.
But this morning, the company downgraded FY 2026 revenue growth guidance to 2% to 3%. Full-year NPATA growth guidance was reduced to 4% to 7%.
Investors also learned that the company's planned demerger of its Seqirus business into a separate ASX-listed entity will be pushed back "given the heightened volatility in the current US influenza vaccine market".
But the $750 million on-market buyback of CSL shares remains on track.
"We have begun a multi-year capital management program, starting with a share buyback this financial year, a clear signal of our strong cash flow and balance sheet," CSL chair Brian McNamee said today.
