Macquarie tips more than 50% upside for this Aussie gold producer

This gold company should deliver good returns to shareholders over the next year.

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Key points

  • Greatland Resources shares have been sold off this week.
  • The company's Telfer mine is performing well.
  • Macquarie analysts believe the stock is cheap at current levels.

Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) is among the Australian gold companies being sold off this week as the price of the precious metal takes a tumble. But if the Macquarie team are right, it might be time to buy the dip.

Greatland, which operates the Telfer gold mine in Western Australia and is developing the nearby Havieron project, on Monday reported September quarter production of 80,890 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $2155 per ounce.

This compares with the spot price of gold in Australian dollars of $6110.80 per ounce.

Mine hitting its straps

The company said it was generating the best gold recoveries at Telfer since 2010, with 88.6% of gold recovered from ore mined, while managing director Shaun Day said the company's cash generation was "again tremendous", at $284 million for the quarter.

Mr Day added that the company's development programs were developing well.

As he said:

The exploration and resource development drilling at Telfer has progressed well and yielded encouraging results across the West Dome Open Pit, Main Dome Underground and in particular the new West Dome Underground project where a new high-grade zone has been identified. We look forward to finalising and sharing the results of the Havieron Feasibility Study, targeted during December 2025. 

At the end of the September quarter, the company was debt-free with $750 million in cash.

Good buying at these levels

The Macquarie team said many of the key metrics in the report had been pre-reported, but the all-in sustaining cost figure, which was new, beat consensus estimates by about 10%.

They said the company was in a strong position to meet its full-year guidance of 285,000 ounces of gold, and they believed the end result would come in slightly higher than this figure.

As they said:

Greatland's first quarter production result was pre-reported and represents a solid start to FY26, with plant optimisation success flowing through to recoveries – a highlight. Importantly FY26 guidance remains on track.

The Macquarie team are bullish on Greatland shares, with a 12-month price target of $10.50.

With Greatland shares currently changing hands for $6.77, down 9.9% on Tuesday, this would represent a healthy 55.1% return for investors should those levels be attained.

The Macquarie team said the release of the Havieron study would also be a catalyst for the stock.

Greatland does not pay dividends. The company will hold its annual general meeting on 13 November.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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