In the last ten years, the CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price has gone up by 130% (at the time of writing) and the passive income has grown significantly too. Following the decline this year, as the chart below shows, investors are now being presented with a noticeably higher dividend yield.
CSL has a diversified healthcare portfolio across a number of therapies for people living with conditions in the immunology, hematology, cardiovascular and metabolic, respiratory, and transplant therapeutic areas.
While the outlook for the company is uncertain in the US, I think the decline in the CSL share price has taken that into account.
Let's take a look at the passive income potential of CSL shares in the medium-term.
Dividend forecasts
The broker UBS is optimistic that the company can deliver dividend growth from here.
Currently, the broker is projecting the business could grow its annual dividend each year between FY26 to FY30.
In FY26, the dividend could rise to US$3.27 per share.
In FY27, the payout could grow to US$3.66 per share.
In FY28, the dividend could grow to US$4.10 per share.
In FY29, the dividend is projected to increase to US$4.59 per share.
Finally, in FY30, the payout could reach US$5.15 per share.
Therefore, the annual dividend could soar by 57% between FY26 and FY30.
At the current CSL share price, the projected FY26 payout translates into a potential forward dividend yield of 2.3%, while the FY30 dividend could be a dividend yield of 3.6%, at the current CSL share price.
The rate of potential growth is exciting, but I wouldn't say that the level of passive income is appealing enough by itself.
Is the CSL share price a buy?
UBS thinks the ASX healthcare share is a buy because the tariff and most favoured nation (MFN) risk from the US is fading, while the overall business is undervalued. MFN is where President Trump wanted the prices paid in the US to be the same as the lowest prices paid for those healthcare products in another country elsewhere in the world.
The broker suggested there's a pathway for CSL to minimise US tariff and MFN impacts, most likely through an exemption of accelerated US manufacturing investment.
UBS also suggests that there's potential for a recovery in CSL Behring's profit growth through a lift in IG sales and expansion of the gross profit margin.
The broker currently rates CSL shares as a buy, with a price target of $300, which also factors in the potential impacts of a demerger of its vaccine business, Seqirus.
Aside from a possible positive re-rating of CSL shares (after the demerger), other benefits include "increased management focus, reduced potential US tariff and MFN risks, and lower earnings seasonality exposure."
The UBS price target on the CSL share price implies a possible rise of 38% over the next 12 months (from the time of writing), if the broker ends up being right.
