BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are trading in the red on Wednesday afternoon. At the time of writing, the mining giant's share price is 2.12% lower and changing hands at $43.195 a piece.
Over the past month, BHP's shares have risen 7.91% and over the past 6 months, they're up 18.31%. Unfortunately, due to a 14% crash in early April (to a three-year low), BHP shares are currently trading just 2.57% higher than this time last year.
The miner released its first-quarter update yesterday morning, revealing a drop in production across all commodities quarter-on-quarter. While the production result was widely expected by the market, it explains the share price dip today.
BHP also reaffirmed all guidance for FY 2026. This includes copper production of 1,800 to 2,000kt and iron ore production of 258 million tonnes to 269 million tonnes.
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What do brokers think of BHP shares?
It looks like analysts are divided about where they think the shares will end up over the next 12 months.
Analysts at Macquarie updated their price guidance on BHP shares this morning, following the company's quarterly announcement. In a note to investors, the broker said it has retained its buy rating on the shares and raised its target price to $43 per share.
At the time of writing, this represents a potential 0.45% downside for investors over the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analysts maintain an overweight rating and $48 target price on the shares following the announcement. This represents a potential upside of 11.1% over the next 12 months.
According to TradingView data, most analysts have a hold rating on the shares. Out of 18 analysts, 6 have a buy or strong buy rating on BHP shares, 2 have a sell or strong sell rating, while the remaining 10 have a hold rating on the stock.
There is quite a range in the target price, too.
The average target price for BHP shares is $44.80, which represents a potential 3.7% upside for investors over the next 12 months.
However, analysts expect anything between an 8.53% downside to a 10.98% upside, according to the stock's price at the time of writing.
What will $10,000 of BHP shares be worth in 2026?
Based on the average $44.80 target price from the data above, investors who purchase $10,000 in shares today could see their investment grow to $10,370 by this time next year.
