Macquarie says this finance company's shares could deliver almost 30% returns, including handsome future dividends

This stock could deliver both capital returns and decent dividends over the next year.

Key points
  • Australian Finance Group recently delivered record quarterly results.
  • Macquarie analysts say the group has macroeconomic trends in its favour.
  • They are predicting substantial upside for AFG shares.

Mortgage aggregator Australian Finance Group Ltd (ASX: AFG) recently delivered a record-breaking quarter, and the team at Macquarie says the numbers are signalling it's a good time to buy the stock.

AFG is a mortgage aggregator, or in layman's terms, the company that stands behind a mortgage broker with the financial firepower to fund the loans.

AFG does more than just fund loans; it's also a technology company with a product suite that helps brokers manage their loan book.

A toy house sits on a pile of Australian $100 notes.

Image source: Getty Images

Strong quarterly numbers

And it appears that making it easier for brokers to do their business is translating to good business for AFG.

The company said in a recent update that it had a record-breaking first quarter, with mortgage lodgements reaching $30.6 billion, up 10.5% on the previous quarter and up 26.5% on the same quarter last year.

AFG Chief Executive David Bailey said at the time the results demonstrated the strength of the market, "highlighted by an increasing presence of investors and a continued rise in average loan sizes".

He went on to say:

Refinance activity has eased, now at just 17% of all lodgements. This marks a notable decline from 26% a year ago, as the wave of refinancing driven by fixed rate expiries and rate competition has moderated. First home buyer activity remains stable at 11%, consistent with the same quarter last year but slightly lower than the previous quarter. Affordability pressures and competition from investors may be influencing this segment.

The company's chair, Greg Medcraft, speaking at the company's annual general meeting last week, said FY25 had been a "defining year" for the company, which posted a net profit of $35 million, up 21%.

More strong growth to come

Mr Bailey told the AGM that the company was looking to grow the loan book in its AFG Securities division from $5.5 billion currently to $9 billion by FY29, which was an "ambitious" target.

Macquarie analysts, looking at the quarterly results, said the growth in the AFG Securities division of 22.7% over the quarter was a positive for the company, as it was a high-margin area for AFG.

The analysts said operating conditions continued to support net interest margins and the growth of the company's loan book.

The Macquarie team have a price target of $2.96 on the share, compared with $2.39 at the time of writing their report, and once dividends were factored in, they were predicting a total shareholder return over a year of 29.2%.

They are forecasting a dividend yield for AFG of 5.3% this financial year, increasing to 6.4% by FY28.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

Woman with her kitten on a laptop in her home office.
Financial Shares

Macquarie Group vs AMP: Which ASX financial stock is best?

Weighing up Macquarie Group vs AMP shares? Here’s how valuation, income, and recent momentum stack up right now.

Read more »

Person holding Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Financial Shares

AFIC reveals FY27 dividend guidance and moves to quarterly payouts

AFIC sets 37c fully franked FY27 dividend and moves to quarterly payments to better support income investors.

Read more »

Man analysing data on his laptop.
Financial Shares

Steadfast vs AUB: Which insurance broker offers better value?

Steadfast Group and AUB Group go head to head: which insurance broker offers better value for Aussie investors?

Read more »

A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.
Financial Shares

Pinnacle Investment Management reports FY26 profit and Metrics funds update

Pinnacle Investment Management reports $176.7 million NPAT, with updates pending on key Metrics-managed funds.

Read more »

Two people in business attire, a man and a woman, stand facing each other solemnly.
Financial Shares

Why are Netwealth shares crashing 6% on Friday?

Here's what investors should know.

Read more »

Worried man watching his smartphone.
Financial Shares

Netwealth faces class action after compensation payments

Netwealth faces a class action relating to First Guardian options, after previously paying $101 million in member compensation.

Read more »

Businessman planning and analysing investment data.
Financial Shares

AMP vs Perpetual: Which ASX financial stock is better value?

AMP or Perpetual—see which ASX financial I favour right now for value and income in this in-depth side-by-side comparison.

Read more »

A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.
Financial Shares

Magellan Financial Group vs GQG Partners: ASX fund manager showdown

Which is the better ASX fund manager: Magellan Financial Group or GQG Partners? I weigh up dividends, valuation and share…

Read more »