Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares are charging higher again today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rare earths miner closed yesterday trading for $21.27. During the Wednesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $21.66 apiece, up 1.8%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.8% at this same time.
Today's outperformance is par for the course for Lynas shares, which have been attracting a lot of investor interest amid the West's push to secure crucial rare earths sources outside of China's control.
Indeed, at current levels, shares in the ASX 200 rare earths miner are now up a jaw-dropping 231.6% in 2025.
We'll take a look at the outlook for further market-beating gains below. But first…
What's happening with China and rare earths?
By most estimates, China still controls at least 70% of the world's rare earths production. These represent a range of elements that together are critical for most modern technologies, from your mobile phone to military craft to EVs.
So, you can see how Lynas shares have caught significant tailwinds following China's latest escalation in its trade war with the United States. That escalation, as you're likely aware, will see China restrict exports on a range of products that contain even small amounts of rare earths.
The US and its allies are clearly not pleased with the latest move.
"We will not let these export restrictions and monitoring go on. They have pointed a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fumed.
Commenting on the addition of five new rare earths to China's restricted list, Oliver Melton, director of Rhodium Group's China practice, said (quoted by Bloomberg):
This is a strategic decision to ensure that they have sustained and persistent leverage over the US and other countries to deter future export controls against China.
Chinese policymakers are keenly aware that they have the ability to disrupt production for major US companies in ways that maximize the impact on US markets, for example by targeting firms like Apple and Tesla.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Are Lynas shares still a buy after rocketing 232%?
Ord Minnett's Tony Paterno recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 rare earths miner (courtesy of The Bull).
"Lynas is the only commercial producer of separated light and heavy rare earth oxides outside of China," said Paterno, who has a sell recommendation on Lynas shares, largely due to current valuations.
"The company recently raised $932 million from institutional investors and eligible shareholders to accelerate growth from additional balance sheet strength," Paterno noted.
"However, the company announced in August that it's uncertain whether construction of its heavy rare earths processing facility in the US state of Texas will proceed," he added.
Commenting on the surging Lynas share price, Paterno concluded:
The company's shares have risen from $6.85 on April 2 to trade at $20.03 on October 9. We believe the shares are overvalued for a company with weaker earnings in fiscal year 2025 when compared to the prior corresponding period.
Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains at these levels.
