Ioneer Ltd (ASX: INR) shares are having a very strong session on Thursday.
In afternoon trade, the ASX lithium share is up 17% to 25.2 cents.
This means its shares are now up 80% in a month.
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Why is this ASX lithium share shooting higher?
Today's gain could have been driven by a delayed response to a bullish broker note out of Bell Potter on Wednesday.
That note reveals that the broker has initiated coverage on the US based lithium developer with a positive view.
It highlights that the company is well-placed to be a major lithium supplier in North America and anticipates average annual EBITDA of US$360 million from its Rhyolite Ridge operation during the first five years of operation. It said:
INR's fully permitted, 100%-owned Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project is located in Nevada, USA. The project is designed to produce +22ktpa Lithium Carbonate Equivalent and 127ktpa boric acid over the first 25 years; Ore Reserves support an 82- year project life at initial production rates. INR's most recent economic update (September 2025) outlines low all-in sustaining costs of US$5,626/t LCE, benefiting from boric acid co-production (20-25% of revenues).
INR has binding lithium offtake contracts with Ford, Toyota/Panasonic and EcoPro. On our long-term price outlook (lithium carbonate US$19,000/t), Rhyolite Ridge generates average annual EBITDA of around US$360m in its first five years of steady-state production (2030-34).
Another positive is the significant debt funding it has received from the US Department of Energy (DoE). It adds:
In January 2025, INR announced the closing of a US$996m, 20-year loan from the US Department of Energy. An asset-level sell-down process for development capital is now underway. The Rhyolite Ridge capital cost estimate is around US$1.7b (including 10% contingency); INR's NPV8 estimate of Rhyolite Ridge is US$1.4b (at average US$23,040/t lithium hydroxide). We expect the sell-down (up to 50%) to conclude by early 2026 to support FID in mid-2026 and first production from 2029.
Time to buy
According to the note, the broker has initiated coverage on the ASX lithium share with a speculative buy rating and 36 cents price target.
Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of almost 45% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its initiation, the broker said:
The Rhyolite Ridge sell-down process should materially de-risk INR's equity funding requirements. We expect the USA DoE to remain supportive; Lithium America's (NYSE: LAC), not rated) recent US$2.3b DoE Thacker Pass (also in Nevada) debt support is a positive analogue. INR's Rhyolite Ridge project is strategic because of its US location, large scale, low cost, boric acid co-product and expansion potential.
