Computershare Ltd (ASX: CPU) shares have delivered healthy returns for investors over the last 12 months.
It is an Australian financial administration company offering global services in corporate trusts, stock transfers, and employee share plans.
At COB yesterday, the industrials stock was up 47.61% over the last 12 months.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials (ASX:XNJ) is up approximately 16% in the same period.
Yesterday, Macquarie released a new report with analysis on Computershare shares.
Lets see what the broker had to say.
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Trimmed forecast for Computershare
Macquarie has trimmed its EPS forecasts and cut its 12-month target price for Computershare to A$36.00 (from A$37.50) as softer forward rate curves weigh on margin income, though guidance remains broadly intact.
Macquarie said over the last 2 years, CPU has traded at a ~10% discount to the ASX100 on a 2-yr forward P/E on average, compared with a 2-yr fwd ASX100 multiple of 18.4x.
The broker now has a "neutral" rating on Computershare.
Earnings sensitivity to bond yields remains high, with each 25bps shift impacting group EPS by ~1.8%.
At current levels we believe CPU's valuation is fair. We await the trading update with the AGM on 13 Nov '25 for confirmation that equity and debt market volumes are improving before becoming more bullish on the stock.
We cut our 12-month price target 4% to A$36.00 from A$37.50 based on a blended DCF/PER methodology reflecting EPS downgrades.
What does the target price change imply?
Computershare shares closed yesterday at $36.80. Based on Macquarie's updated price target, the broker expects the stock price to fall approximately 2%.
Investors who have benefited from the 47% rise in the last 12 months couldn't be blamed for selling and taking profits.
Macquarie said key near-term risks include continued volatility in interest rates and forward curves, potential setbacks in achieving cost reductions, and the possibility of elevated CPI persisting longer than expected.
In fact, last month Computershare shares were listed as a "sell" candidate from Medallion Financial Group's Stuart Bromley.
He said there isn't a catalyst that will generate meaningful growth in the short term.
Elsewhere, Bell Potter has a "hold" recommendation and target price of $39.08. This indicates a further 8% upside.
Those planning to hold the stock should be monitoring the annual general meeting on 13 November.
