CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have yet to recover from the huge sell-off that followed the release of the company's FY 2025 results on 19 August.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed up 0.3% on Wednesday, trading for $198.80 apiece. That leaves the share price down a painful 26.73% since market close on 18 August.
The big recent sell-down was partly driven by slightly weaker FY 2026 guidance than consensus analyst forecasts. And investors look to have been spooked by the announcement that CSL will spin off one of its three business divisions.
Management announced its intention to demerge CSL's Seqirus segment – one of the world's largest influenza vaccine businesses – into a separate ASX-listed company. The company aims to complete the Seqirus demerger before the end of FY 2026.
CSL shares closed down 16.9% on the day of the announcement.
But with shares now down 31% in a year, is it time to buy the beaten-down ASX 200 biotech stock?
Below, we look at the latest recommendations from two leading investment experts (courtesy of The Bull).
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The bearish case for the ASX 200 biotech stock
Peak Asset Management's Niv Dagan doesn't expect the biotech share to outperform in the months ahead.
According to Dagan, who has a sell recommendation on CSL shares:
CSL has announced a major transformation program, including the planned demerger of its influenza vaccines business Seqirus, a 15% reduction in its workforce and between US$700 million and US$770 million in pre-tax restructuring costs in fiscal year 2026.
These changes are designed to simplify operations and deliver more than US$500 million in annual cost savings during the next three years.
But Dagan noted that CSL's transformation program comes with significant risks.
"Executing the transformation program carries risk," he said. "In our view, near term upside is limited in response to restructuring costs and investor uncertainty surrounding the Seqirus demerger."
Dagan added, "The shares plunged following the release of full year 2025 results and strategic initiatives."
Don't sell your CSL shares just yet
Baker Young's Toby Grimm has a more optimistic outlook. Though he's not ready to pull the trigger just yet.
"We view the pronounced decline in CSL's share price following the release of full year 2025 results in August as an over-reaction," said Grimm, who has a hold recommendation on CSL stock.
"The scale of restructuring costs was a surprise, and we expect more selective contracting will reduce revenue in coming years," he added.
But Grimm sees a light at the end of the tunnel for the pressured CSL share price.
According to Grimm:
Improving margins will likely support underlying earnings growth. We believe uncertainty created by the unexpected demerger of its influenza vaccines business added to the share price decline.
However, a simplified business will enable CSL to focus on its core strengths in blood plasma.
