Why did CSL shares sink again in September?

CSL shares trailed the benchmark again in September. But why?

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Key points

  • CSL shares fell by 6.9% in September, underperforming the ASX 200's 1.4% decline, continuing their downward trend after August's significant drop.
  • The decline follows the planned demerger of its Seqirus segment, a major influenza vaccine business, aimed to be completed by FY 2026.
  • CSL's September announcement of a partnership with VarmX for a new blood coagulation treatment showed promise, yet investors remain cautious, with mixed analyst ratings on the stock.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares underperformed the benchmark index again in September.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed out August trading for $212.89 each. When the closing bell sounded on 30 September, shares were changing hands for $198.20 apiece.

This saw CSL shares drop 6.9% over the month, trailing the 1.4% loss posted by the ASX 200 in September.

September's losses followed a horror month in August, a month that saw shares in the ASX 200 biotech stock crash by 21%. That sell-off looks to have been primarily spurred by the company's unexpected announcement that it will spin off one of its three business divisions.

Management said they aim to demerge the Seqirus segment – which counts as one of the world's largest influenza vaccine businesses – into a separate and "substantial ASX-listed entity". CSL aims to complete the demerger before the end of FY 2026.

Now, here's what ASX investors were looking at in September.

What happened with CSL shares in September?

The only price-sensitive announcement from the company was released on 16 September.

As the Motley Fool reported on the day, CSL revealed that it had entered into an agreement with Netherlands-based biotech company, VarmX. The partners will work on developing a new treatment to restore blood coagulation in patients taking an FXa inhibitor.

Yet CSL shares slipped 1.6% on the day, despite the company noting that more than 20 million people around the world currently take FXa inhibitors.

Investors may have concerns about the costs involved.

Under the agreement, CSL will fund VarmX's global Phase 3 trial, which will evaluate VMX-C001 in patients taking FXa inhibitors. CSL also said it will pay US$117 million to VarmX for an exclusive option to acquire the company once the Phase 3 data has been completed.

Commenting on the agreement that's intended to boost CSL shares longer term, CEO Paul McKenzie said on the day, "CSL has a long history of working in hematology and bleeding disorders and partnering with VarmX strengthens our strategic ambition to deliver enduring patient impact."

McKenzie added:

The preclinical and early clinical data are also very encouraging and led to the U.S Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granting Fast Track Designation, recognising VMX-C001's potential to address a critical unmet medical need.

Is the ASX 200 biotech stock now a good buy?

Following the recent big sell-down in CSL shares, a number of analysts have come out with renewed recommendations and price targets on the stock.

A fair number of experts remain leery of buying the ASX 200 biotech stock just yet, and they've issued hold recommendations.

There are also a few sell recommendations out there, but those look to be outweighed by the buy group.

In early September, both Morgans' Damien Nguyen and Family Financial Solutions' Jabin Hallihan came out with a bullish assessment for the company.

Hallihan noted, "Our 12-month analyst valuation is $291.31 as the long-term outlook remains intact."

That represents a potential upside of more than 31% from today's intraday CSL share price of $199.85.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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