The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price has suffered from a fair amount of pain this year. As the chart below shows, it's down 26% from 18 August 2025 and almost 30% in 2025 to date.
The ASX healthcare share is seemingly facing a loss of investor confidence following changes in the US, both recently and in the last several months.
As reported by my colleague James Mickleboro, the US President Donald Trump intends to put a 100% tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product that enters the US from 1 October.
But, if companies are building drug manufacturing facilities in the US, they are exempt.
How will this affect CSL shares?
After being questioned by the ABC about the announced tariff changes, CSL said the following:
In addition to CSL's Australian facilities, we have a very significant United States manufacturing footprint.
We are already expanding our US capabilities to meet the growing demand for our therapies and we have announced further expansion of significant, new capital investments during the next five years.
As per previous market guidance, we do not expect any material impact from these tariffs.
CSL has hundreds of blood collection centres, a plasma processing facility, and a vaccine plant. It reportedly has around 19,000 employees in the US and already has a significant presence there.
In a note, broker UBS said previous analysis estimated an unmitigated impact to operating profit (EBIT) of US$1.2 billion, representing 23% of estimated FY27 EBIT. That sounds quite detrimental for CSL shares. That calculation is based on four things:
…based on: 1) US tariff rate of 100%; 2) plasma exemption with API produced in the US; 3) US transfer price at 75%; and 4) US imports value of US $1.2bn including Behring (non-plasma; recombinant Hemophilia products) at US $0.8bn, Seqirus (non Flucelvax products) at US$0.1bn and Vifor (API only) at US$0.4bn.
How can the company offset this?
UBS explained that there is a lot of potential for the business to reduce the impact of this through US manufacturing and sales redirection. The broker explained:
The most likely mitigation opportunity for CSL comes from a company-wide tariff exemption deal associated with the acceleration of its US fractionation facility. The investment would cost US$1.5-2.0bn and could likely form part of CSL's Horizon 2 manufacturing initiatives to significantly lift IG product yields.
In the current environment we expect only a limited ability for CSL to offset tariff costs through higher US drug pricing, and more likely alternative migration for Behring and Seqirus products is redirection of sales outside of the US but most likely at a lower pricing (-30%). Sales redirection is probably not an option for Vifor with our analysis pointing to significantly lower pricing outside the US. Under this redirection scenario, CSL's tariff EBIT impact would moderate to a less painful US$0.7bn (13% of FY27e EBIT).
Is the CSL share price a buy?
UBS still has a buy rating on the business, which is a positive sign for shareholders.
Numerous analysts think the ASX healthcare share is a buy. According to a Commsec compilation of analyst recommendations, there are currently 14 buy ratings, five hold ratings, and zero sell ratings.
The more the CSL share price falls, the bigger the margin of safety that buyers receive. I'm still pessimistic about what could happen in the US for the company, but the lower valuation may offset that.
