Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS) shares have been on fire in recent sessions.
So much so, the ASX mining stock is up 30% since this time last week.
This is despite the market being dragged lower by economic uncertainty.
But if you thought the gains were over, think again. That's because the team at Bell Potter is feeling very bullish on this miner and is urging investors to snap up its shares.
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What's the broker saying about this ASX mining stock?
Bell Potter notes that Aeris Resources recently released its FY 2025 results. And while its profits were softer than expected, it highlights that this was due to higher than expected finance costs. It said:
FY25 financial result AIS reported its FY25 financial result. Key metrics included revenue of $577m (vs BPe $598m), EBITDA of $180m (vs BPe $181m) and NPAT of $45m (vs BPe $74m, and up from a $24m loss yoy). The main differences between the reported results and our forecasts were higher than expected finance costs, higher D&A charges and higher care & maintenance costs. AIS held cash and copper/gold receivables of $49.5m at end June and gross debt of $40m for net cash of $9.5m. No dividend was declared and FY26 production and cost guidance was unchanged at 40-49kt Cueq, inclusive of 24-29kt Cu + 44-56koz Au.
The broker has been pleased with the performance of its Tritton project and notes that it is "showing its potential." This comes at a great time given its favourable outlook on copper and gold prices. It adds:
The key takeout from the result, in our view, is the return to profitability and solid yoy growth. It also demonstrated good leverage to copper and gold prices, with revenue up 7%, EBITDA up 68% and NPAT up 286% yoy. This was also reflected in operating cash flow of $130m (up 108% from $63m in FY24) and free cash flow of $17m (turnaround from $46m outflow in FY24). This was despite significant CAPEX into new mining areas and an increased exploration spend.
Looking ahead, we are encouraged by EBITDA from Tritton more than doubling from ~$31m in 1HFY25, to $64m in 2HFY25 on an improved operational performance. We forecast this production rate to be sustained from 2HFY26, when the second stage of ore mining gets underway at the Murrawombie open-pit and with the subsequent development of the Constellation deposit.
Strong potential returns
According to the note, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating and 35 cents price target on the ASX mining stock.
Based on its current share price of 26.5 cents, this implies potential upside of 32% for investors over the next 12 months.
Overall, Bell Potter is positive on its exposure to copper and sees it as a potential takeover target. It concludes:
AIS is a copper dominant producer with its near-term outlook highly leveraged to the copper price and increasing production at Tritton. Successful delivery offers significant upside. It operates the largest processing plant in the region making it a strategically attractive asset and vulnerable as a corporate target, in our view. We retain our Buy recommendation and Target Price of $0.35/sh.
