BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are edging lower today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $42.85. In late morning trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $42.77 apiece, down 0.2%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.8% at this same time.
BHP shares enjoyed a strong month of outperformance in August, gaining 10.0% over the month. This now sees shares in Australia's biggest miner up 20.0% since market close on 23 June.
Which brings us back to our headline question. After such a strong run, is BHP stock still a good buy today?
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BHP shares: Buy, hold, or sell?
Family Financial Solutions' Jabin Hallihan recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 mining stock (courtesy of The Bull).
"The global miner reported softer earnings due to weaker iron ore prices, although copper volumes improved," said Hallihan, who has a hold recommendation on BHP shares.
BHP reported its FY 2025 results on 19 August. The miner achieved record iron ore production of 263 million tonnes, up 1% on FY 2024. But as Hallihan pointed out, the average realised price the miner received for its iron ore declined by 19% year on year to US$82.13 per wet metric tonne.
On the copper front, BHP produced 2,017 tonnes of the red metal, up 8% year on year. And the miner reported an average realised copper price of US$4.25 per pound, up 7% from the prior year.
Supporting his hold recommendation on BHP shares, Hallihan said, "BHP continues to invest in future-facing commodities, such as potash and nickel. The balance sheet remains strong, and the dividend yield is attractive."
As for that passive income, BHP declared a final fully franked dividend of 92 Aussie cents per share, down 17% from last year's final payout.
That final BHP dividend is still up for grabs, by the way. Though not for long.
BHP trades ex-dividend tomorrow, 4 September. Meaning you'll need to own the stock at market close today if you want to bank that passive income.
Atop the interim dividend of (a rounded) 79 cents per share, BHP's full FY 2025 dividend comes out to $1.71 a share. At the current share price, this sees BHP trading on a fully franked dividend yield (part trailing, part pending) of 4.0%.
Solid dividend yield aside, Hallihan doesn't expect a lot of capital gains for BHP shares, noting Family Financial's 12-month analyst valuation is $43.74.
Hallihan concluded:
BHP's diversified asset base and disciplined capital strategy support long term resilience. However, near-term upside appears limited given commodity price volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty.
BHP remains a core holding for investors seeking exposure to global resources.
