The ASX mining share BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has delivered significant passive income for investors over the years. But, it's an evolving picture and the potential dividends may not be quite as large.
As one of the world's largest iron and copper mining businesses, it is exposed to the changes in commodity prices, which are unpredictable at the best of times.
The FY25 result showed how lower iron ore and coal prices affected the mining company's profitability, though higher copper prices helped the business.
The FY25 report saw the company's underlying net profit fall 26% to US$10.2 billion, and the dividend was cut to US$1.10 per share.
Let's take a look at what could happen with the dividend in the near term.
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FY26 predictions for BHP shares
The forecast from the broker UBS suggests the business could reduce its annual dividend per share to US 90 cents in the 2026 financial year.
UBS says BHP is the best operator, but it still has challenges, such as overspending at the potash project called Jansen. It also noted that the business is working towards 330mt per annum of iron ore.
On copper, BHP said it's a hive of growth optionality, capital expenditure, and a value realisation opportunity.
Longer-term passive dividend income growth
While iron ore prices are unpredictable, copper could continue to become a greater share of BHP's earnings thanks to global electrification efforts. If it achieves this, then I believe BHP's dividend could climb alongside the earnings.
UBS forecasts that BHP's dividend per share could climb to US 93 cents in FY27, US 95 cents in FY28, and US$1.22 in FY29. This could mean that by FY29, it could have a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.2%, including franking credits.
This certainly isn't the highest dividend yield we've seen from BHP following the rapid rise of almost 20% in the last two months. It's not as cheap as it was. I like the diversification it can add to an income-focused portfolio, though it's not the first stock I'd buy for passive income.
