This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
Key Points
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Nvidia's data center revenue hit $39.1 billion in Q1 FY26 alone, with Blackwell shipments ramping and Rubin systems coming before 2028.
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AMD and Intel are winning share at the margins but can't break Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem and supply chain advantages by 2028.
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Even with a potential government stake in Intel, the AI infrastructure buildout measured in trillions supports Nvidia's pricing power through the decade.
Wall Street is increasingly wary of growing competition in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market. While Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) continues to dominate with more than 80% of the AI training and deployment market, rivals are starting to score meaningful design wins. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) has secured adoption of its MI300X chips at Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and OpenAI. Meanwhile, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is in talks with the U.S. government about potential investment support to accelerate its manufacturing and foundry expansion.
Bears argue that Nvidia's market share is unsustainably high, especially in an industry prone to disruption, but that view misses the bigger picture. The AI hardware market is growing from hundreds of billions into the trillions, so even a smaller share of a much larger pie can drive enormous profit. More importantly, Nvidia retains a full-stack advantage that integrates hardware, Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) software, ecosystem support, and developer adoption, creating a moat competitors have yet to match.
The trillion-dollar tailwind nobody's calculating correctly
Forget the hand-wringing about market saturation. The numbers tell a different story. The big four hyperscalers alone are on track to spend $300 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley. Backend AI network switching, a direct proxy for graphics processing unit (GPU) cluster scale, will top $100 billion between 2025 and 2029, per Dell'Oro Group. Omdia forecasts that the cloud and data center accelerator market will reach $151 billion by 2029, with growth merely moderating, not reversing, after 2026.
Nvidia's first-quarter results of fiscal 2026 put this opportunity in perspective. Total revenue hit $44.1 billion for the quarter, with data center revenue alone generating $39.1 billion. That's not a typo -- $39.1 billion in three months from data centers. At this scale, even if Nvidia loses 10 points of market share, the absolute dollar opportunity keeps growing. When your addressable market is expanding by hundreds of billions annually, you don't need a monopoly share to compound revenue.
The moat everyone underestimates
Nvidia dominates not because it builds the fastest chips but because it owns the stack. CUDA has become the default environment for training large models, anchoring developers, frameworks, and tooling to Nvidia's ecosystem. NVLink and NVSwitch give its GPUs the ability to communicate at bandwidths PCI Express cannot match, allowing training to scale seamlessly across entire racks.
Upstream, the bottlenecks are even more decisive. Advanced packaging capacity for CoWoS at Taiwan Semiconductor is limited, even with output expected to roughly double in 2025 and expand again in 2026. Industry reports indicate that Nvidia has secured the majority of that allocation, leaving rivals with less room to ship at scale.
High-bandwidth memory is the second choke point. SK Hynix remains Nvidia's lead supplier, with Micron and Samsung Electronics still ramping up capacity. Priority access to next-generation High Bandwidth Memoty nodes ensures Nvidia's accelerators hit volume while others wait in line.
This combination of software lock-in, interconnect scale-out, and privileged supply allocation is not a fleeting edge. It is a structural moat measured in years. Even if competitors design strong alternatives, they can't reach meaningful volume without access to these same resources. That's why Nvidia's premium valuation is not just about market share. It's about owning the rails on which the AI economy runs.
Why AMD and Intel can't break the kingdom
AMD is real competition -- let's not pretend otherwise. Azure's ND MI300X instances are generally available, Meta publicly uses MI300-class chips for Llama inference, and OpenAI has signaled it will use AMD's latest chips alongside others.
ROCm 7 and the AMD Developer Cloud have genuinely improved software support. But here's the reality check: AMD's entire data center revenue was $3.2 billion last quarter, driven largely by EPYC central processing units, not GPUs. Nvidia does that in about a week.
AMD wins on price-performance for specific workloads, especially inference. It gives hyperscalers negotiating leverage and caps Nvidia's pricing at the margin. But breaking CUDA's gravity requires more than competitive hardware -- it needs a software revolution that won't happen by 2028.
Intel's situation is even more interesting with reports that the Trump administration is considering a government stake. If that happens, Intel gets cheaper capital, stabilized fabs, and preferential treatment for government contracts.
But it doesn't solve CUDA lock-in, NVLink scale, or Nvidia's platform cadence. Gaudi 3 is shipping through Dell Technologies' AI Factory and IBM Cloud, targeting better price performance than H100 on selected workloads. But it's still behind H200 and Blackwell in absolute performance and ecosystem support.
The path to 2028
The base case through 2028 is straightforward: demand growth plus platform innovation keep Nvidia atop training workloads while AMD and Intel expand as cost-optimized alternatives. Nvidia maintains 70% to 80% share in training and loses some inference share to cheaper alternatives but grows absolute revenue on market expansion. The bears worry about customized chips, power constraints, or supply shocks, but none of these threats materialize fast enough to derail the story before 2028.
This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
