Forget the 5% dividend yield: Expert calls time on this outperforming ASX 200 REIT

A leading expert forecasts mounting headwinds for this high-yielding ASX 200 REIT.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) real estate investment trust (REIT) Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX) is pushing higher today.

Shares in the shopping centre owner and manager closed yesterday trading for $2.48. In early afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $2.49 apiece, up 0.4%.

That puts the Vicinity Centres share price up 22.1% over the past 12 months, handily outpacing the 14.9% gains delivered by the benchmark index over this same period.

Atop those capital gains, the ASX 200 REIT also delivered 11.9 cents per share in unfranked dividends over the full year. At the current share price, that sees Vicinity Centre shares trading on an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 4.8%.

But with shares still trading near the five-year highs posted on 4 July, Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable believes now could be an opportune time to take profits (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

Time to sell the ASX 200 REIT?

"Vicinity is a leading retail property group. It has $24 billion in retail assets under management across 53 shopping centres," said Gable, who has a sell recommendation on the ASX 200 REIT.

"The company delivered a statutory net profit after tax of $492.6 million in the first half of fiscal year 2025, up from $223.5 million in the prior corresponding period," he said.

With Vicinity Centres' strong share price gains in mind, and potential headwinds brewing, Gable concluded:

VCX has performed well running into full year results, and, in our view, is now looking expensive. We also expect industrial real estate investment trusts to outperform within the property sector. The technical chart suggests the uptrend for VCX is now at risk of ending.

A word from the CEO

Following the release of the ASX 200 REIT's half-year results on 19 February, Vicinity Centres CEO Peter Huddle said the company has been "simultaneously working on immediate, medium and long-term strategic priorities that support earnings resilience and sustained value accretion over time".

He added:

Our investment strategy remains anchored by our strong conviction that premium, fortress-style assets that are located in great trade areas and are well managed by retail property experts, have the potential to deliver superior and sustained income and value growth. Our conviction is supported by the drivers of growth we have in our business today.

Pointing to the strength of the ASX 200 REIT's portfolio, Huddle said that occupancy had increased from 97.9% in June 2021 to 99.6% in December 2024.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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