BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have enjoyed a strong comeback after plumbing to one-year lows on 9 April.
During the Monday lunch hour, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant are changing hands for $39.36 apiece. That's up 0.4% from Friday's closing price of $39.22 a share.
And it sees BHP shares up 14.8% since closing at $34.16 on 9 April.
Longer term, the ASX 200 mining stock remains down 4.4% since this time last year. Though that's not including the (rounded) $1.90 a share in fully franked dividends BHP paid out over the 12 months.
At the current share price, this sees BHP trading on a fully franked 4.8% trailing dividend yield.
Which brings us back to our headline question. Should you buy BHP stock today?
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BHP shares: Buy, hold, sell?
MPC Markets' Jonathan Tacadena ran his slide rule over BHP shares, drilling into the miner's quarterly update released on 18 July.
"Commodity prices are on the rise, and BHP is taking full advantage," Tacadena said (courtesy of The Bull).
Indeed, the iron ore price is back at just about US$100 per tonne, after falling to around US$93 per tonne on 1 July. And copper, BHP's number two revenue earner, has gained 11% since 9 April, currently fetching US$9,631 per tonne.
"The global miner recently posted record iron ore and copper production for 2025," Tacadena said. "That's good news for profits and even better news for dividends, which are expected to remain attractive to investors."
Drilling into those numbers, BHP reported an 8% year on year increase in copper production to a record of 2.02 million tonnes in FY 2025. Iron ore production increased 1% over the year to 263 million tonnes.
But Tacadena, with a "solid hold" recommendation, isn't ready to pull the trigger on BHP shares just yet.
He concluded:
BHP's size, mix of assets and focus on efficiency leave the company as a solid hold to ride out market volatility. BHP is appealing to investors chasing steady income and long-term growth.
A word from the CEO
Commenting on the robust global copper and iron ore demand that's helped lift BHP shares in recent months, BHP CEO Mike Henry said, "Commodity demand globally has remained resilient so far in 2025."
Henry added:
That resilience largely reflects China's ongoing ability to grow its overall export base despite a significant decline in exports to the USA, and its ability to deliver robust domestic demand despite the dislocation in the property sector.
Copper and steel demand have benefited from a sharp acceleration in renewable energy investment, electricity grid build out, strong machinery exports and EV sales.
