Macquarie tips 26% upside for this ASX 200 gaming stock

Here's what's behind this enticing price target 

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In a recent report from Macquarie, the broker identified ASX 200 stock Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW) as one with plenty of upside. 

New data shows US casino gaming revenues rose during June – good news for this consumer discretionary company. 

It engages in the development of technology-based products and services and associated content. 

The gaming segment designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a comprehensive portfolio of gaming products and services.

This is what the broker had to say about this ASX 200 company. 

US Casino optimism

Broker Macquarie highlighted in its report US gaming revenue has been steady. 

US casino gaming revenues were +3% yoy in June 2025, with Las Vegas +1% yoy and regionals +3% yoy. 2025 YTD growth is +2% yoy.

The broker said in 2025, it expects regional casino gaming revenues to show modest growth, and Las Vegas to be flat, with a 2H skew.

According to the report, US casino gaming revenues remain resilient, despite general economic uncertainty. Long-run analysis illustrates that casino gaming revenues are relatively insulated from such volatility.

We remain constructive on the resilience of US gaming revenues in a softening consumer environment based on long-run analysis.

Light and Wonder outlook 

The company will release its Q2 FY25 results on August 7.

Macquarie said it expects Light & Wonder to post modest Q2 FY25 EBITDA growth of +2% (excluding Grover), before accelerating to +18% in the second half as it recovers from earlier product issues. 

The broker believes the company's full-year EBITDA guidance of US$1.4 billion is achievable, implying +12% year-on-year growth.

The ASX 200 company has seen significant share price volatility over the last 12 months and is down 11.09% in that span overall. 

Updated price target

The broker has placed an "outperform" rating on the ASX 200 shares and a price target of $188.00. 

This indicates an upside of 26.4% from its current share price. 

In the same report the broker placed an "outperform" rating and $70.00 price target on rival Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) shares. This suggests little upside for the gaming technology company. Its shares closed last week at $69.21 each. 

Therefore, in the ASX 200 gaming space, Macquarie currently has a clear preference for Light & Wonder shares.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Light & Wonder. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Light & Wonder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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