The ASX energy share Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) has seen its share price soar in the last few months. As the chart below shows, it has jumped almost 30% in three months.
The business has regained investor confidence and the latest update from the company continued to show good progress.
A positive quarterly update from the business doesn't necessarily mean it's a good buy for the long-term, but it's also worth taking note of. So, let's take a look at what Woodside said.
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Quarterly update
The company reported quarterly production of 50.1 million barrels, up 2% from the first quarter of 2025. It said it achieved a "strong" realised quarterly price of US$62 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) for produced LNG, benefiting from "diversified pricing and optimisation".
Woodside also said that it has entered into two sales and purchase agreements (SPA) with Uniper for the long-term supply of LNG.
Due to the good quarter, the business updated its production guidance to between 188 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) to 195 MMboe. This also allowed the business to reduce its full-year unit production cost range to between $8 per BOE to $8.5 per BOE after strong production and cost performance in the first half of 2025.
On the project side of things, Woodside said that it has unlocked long-term future value through the final investment decision to develop the Louisiana LNG project.
The Scarborough energy project was 86% complete at the end of the quarter and remains on track to deliver the first LNG cargo in the second half of 2026. The Trion project was 35% complete and remains on track to deliver the first oil in 2028. Woodside also said the Beaumont new ammonia project was 95% complete, with phase one of the project targeting first ammonia production from late 2025.
Is this a good time to invest in Woodside shares?
Investors have clearly thought it was an opportunity in the last few weeks. The question is – is it appealing after the significant rise?
The business is expected to see net profit fall to US$1.77 billion in FY25 and then decline again to US$1.33 billion in FY26, according to UBS. The difficulty in projecting earnings for the business is that energy prices can change so significantly.
Completing the projects under construction could make a big difference to future earnings. By FY29, the broker is forecasting net profit of US$2.46 billion in FY29. But that's a long way off.
The Woodside share price has already soared recently and it doesn't look like a beaten-up opportunity. I think the best time to buy into a cyclical business like Woodside is when it appears to be near the bottom of the cycle (for the share price), which now doesn't appear to be the case.
According to the UBS forecast, it could pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.7%, including franking credits. I don't think the short-term dividend income alone is appealing enough to invest.
