3 reasons why the BHP share price could be a buy

Here are my optimistic thoughts on BHP.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is the largest ASX mining share. Because resource prices are volatile, the business often experiences ups and downs. However, there are some great reasons to like the BHP share price.

Pleasingly for shareholders, the BHP share price has climbed by more than 10% since 23 June 2025. However, with a cyclical business, that could make the company less attractive to new investors. Its profitability is linked to the performance of commodity prices, so it's only likely to go so far.

As the chart below shows for the last five years, BHP is not trading near a high or a low point.

Considering the above, I'd consider the following factors if I were looking for positives to convince me to invest.

A young woman wearing a blue blouse with white polkadots holds her phone up with an intrigued and happy look on her face as she reads some news.

Image source: Getty Images

Record copper production

Copper will become increasingly crucial for the BHP share price as the business increases its copper production to address rising demand over the long term.

Copper is needed for several purposes, including expanding electrical grids, electric vehicles, wind farms, and so on.

In BHP's FY25 fourth quarter update, the business reported delivering record group copper production of over 2mt, up 8% year over year. This was driven by strong performance across all operated copper assets, including a 16% production increase at Escondida, record production at Spence and record quarterly (in the fourth quarter) production from copper SA.

If BHP can continue growing its copper production over time, I think this segment could generate larger profits and increasingly contribute to the BHP share price.

Strong performance in iron ore

Iron ore has been the key profit generator for the business over the years, and it continues to be integral to the overall success of the ASX mining share.

The company has little control over the iron ore price, which is heavily influenced by the level of demand from the Asian economic superpower, China. According to Trading Economics, the iron ore price is currently sitting around US$97 per tonne. That's still a good level for the business to generate solid profits.

BHP can influence its level of iron ore production. In the quarterly and annual FY25 production update, BHP said it delivered record iron ore production, with Western Australian Iron Ore production 290mt (on a 100% basis), overcoming the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Zelia and Tropical Storm Sean in the third quarter of FY25. The ramp-up of the second concentrator at Samarco, which was ahead of schedule, also contributed to its record iron ore production.

Resilient China?

I'd describe China as the primary customer for BHP, and the Asian country's economic strength is key for the miner's financials. So far, BHP is seeing resilience from China's economy. CEO Mike Henry said:

Commodity demand globally has remained resilient so far in 2025. That resilience largely reflects China's ongoing ability to grow its overall export base despite a significant decline in exports to the USA, and its ability to deliver robust domestic demand despite the dislocation in the property sector. Copper and steel demand have benefited from a sharp acceleration in renewable energy investment, electricity grid build out, strong machinery exports and EV sales. While slower economic growth and a fragmenting trading system remain potential headwinds, stimulus efforts by China and the USA would help to mitigate the near-term impact. Going forward, China's 15th 5-year plan is likely to provide more visibility on policies to sustain longer term growth and development.

Overall, I'm optimistic about how the BHP share price and dividend will fare if China remains stable.

While I'm not expecting another 10% rise in the miner's valuation in the next few months, I think it can produce pleasing shareholder performance.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

A young African mine worker is standing with a smile in front of a large haul dump truck wearing his personal protective wear.
Resources Shares

Why is this $25 billion ASX mining stock charging higher today?

Investors are piling in after the company reported record cash flow.

Read more »

Two smiling men in high visibility vests and yellow hardhats stand side by side with a large mound of earth and mining equipment behind them smiling as the Carnaby Resources share price rises today
Resources Shares

Evolution Mining delivers record cash flow and moves to net cash

Evolution Mining delivered record cash flows and moved to net cash in the March 2026 quarter, keeping full-year targets in…

Read more »

A female coal miner wearing a white hardhat and orange high-vis vest holds a lump of coal and smiles.
Resources Shares

Yancoal Australia announces $2.4bn Kestrel Coal Mine acquisition

Yancoal Australia is set to acquire an 80% interest in the Kestrel Coal Mine, boosting its share of metallurgical coal…

Read more »

A group of people in suits and hard hats celebrate the rising share price with champagne.
Resources Shares

Up 67% in a year! The red-hot South32 share price is smashing BHP, Rio and Fortescue

Here's why I think the miner could outpace some of its peers in 2026.

Read more »

Green stock market graph with a rising arrow symbolising a rising share price.
Share Gainers

Guess which ASX mining stock is rocketing 80% today on huge Philippines news

This small-cap ASX mining stock is coming close to doubling its value today.

Read more »

A group of three men in hard hats and high visibility vests stand together at a mine site while one points and the others look on with piles of dirt and mining equipment in the background.
Resources Shares

Why this ASX 200 iron ore stock is holding up in today's sell-off

Champion shares slip despite completing a major European acquisition.

Read more »

A silhouette shot of two business man shake hands in a boardroom setting with light coming from full length glass windows beyond them.
Resources Shares

Champion Iron finalises acquisition of Norway's Rana Gruber

Champion Iron completes its US$300m acquisition of Norway’s Rana Gruber, expanding its high-purity iron ore portfolio.

Read more »

Two workers working with a large copper coil in a factory.
Resources Shares

Missed BHP shares' massive run? Here's what could happen next

Up 52%, but do brokers think there’s more in the tank?

Read more »