S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) is marching higher today.
Bellevue Gold shares closed yesterday at 92.0 cents. In afternoon trade on Thursday, they are changing hands for 93 cents apiece, up 1.3%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.12% today.
Unfortunately for longer-term shareholders, today's outperformance is not the norm for this ASX 200 gold stock over the past 12 months.
In fact, the Bellevue Gold price is still down 49.62% since this time last year.
That's well behind the 10.94% one-year gains posted by the ASX 200.
And this underperformance comes despite the gold price having surged 42.16% over 12 months to the current US$3,350.41 per ounce. A price surge that's sent the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks – up 58.76% since this time last year.
A lot of this underperformance looks to have been driven by ASX investor concerns over the significant capital expenditure required to develop the miner's Bellevue gold project, located in Western Australia.
But with commercial production at the mine having started last May, could Bellevue Gold shares be set for a rebound?
Should I buy the big dip on this ASX 200 gold stock today?
Seneca Financial Solutions' Arthur Garipoli recently ran his slide rule across Bellevue Gold shares (courtesy of The Bull).
"This Western Australian gold producer recently downgraded production, sending its share price down to 83 cents on May 15," Garipoli noted.
He added:
In April 2025, BGL raised $156.5 million in capital at 85 cents a share. Including working capital, funds were used to close out hedge book contracts and to increase exposure to spot gold prices.
Though Garipoli has a hold recommendation on the ASX 200 gold stock, he does foresee some potential catalysts that could drive a share price rebound.
"In our view, BGL shares are trading at a significant discount, which leaves it attractive to potential suitors," he said.
Garipoli concluded, "Bellevue Gold is worth holding on an improved outlook or potential takeover."
What's the latest from Bellevue Gold?
Bellevue released its March quarter report on 29 April.
Commenting on the miner's quarterly results on the day, Bellevue managing director Darren Stralow said:
We achieved our mine development targets in January and February. Following this success, we expected increased gold production in the month of March. However, some sub-optimal mining practices some poor stope performance over a short period and during a rapid ramp up in mining rates resulted in gold production and revenue generation falling short of budgets in March.
The subsequent operational review has resulted in a more robust, less capital intensive and lower risk mining and operating plan that focuses on maximising operating cash flow. Cash flow will be boosted significantly by the substantially increased exposure to the spot price as a result of the close-out of near-term hedge contracts.
Shares in the ASX 200 gold stock closed up 4.0% on the day it reported.
