The gold price reached an all-time high of around US$3,500 an ounce in April 2025.
It has risen more than 25% for the year-to-date, surpassing many expert forecasts.
Gold benefited as central banks bought the yellow metal and investors flocked to safe-haven assets following heightened geopolitical conflict.
However, in the months that followed, the gold price retracted. Sentiment improved and investors piled back into equity investments. Since 7 April, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 16%, while the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) has climbed 23% over the same period.
Recently, further geopolitical tension sent the gold price higher. As conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, the gold price hit US$3,400 an ounce in June.
Since then, the gold price has once again weakened back to US$3,321 an ounce (at the time of writing).
Gold investors may be wondering, has the gold price already peaked this year?
JP Morgan tips further upside
In June, JP Morgan reflected on the outlook for gold for the remainder of the year.
Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan, commented:
Earlier this year, we examined the structural shift in gold's demand and geopolitically influenced pricing drivers fueling its rebasing higher, ultimately posing the question if $4,000/oz is in the cards.
To answer the question — yes, we think it is, particularly now with recession probabilities and ongoing trade and tariff risks. We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly.
JP Morgan now expects the gold price to average US$3,675 an ounce by the final quarter of 2025, before climbing toward US$4,000 an ounce by the second quarter of 2026.
Which retail investors are buying and selling?
The profiles of retail buyers and sellers of gold provides insight into investor sentiment within their respective markets.
A recent Bloomberg article revealed some interesting trends.
According to Bloomberg, US retail investors who buy gold bars and coins are selling them, while Asian buyers are continuing to purchase bullion.
This suggests contrasting outlooks for the global economy.
US investors have become more comfortable with US President Donald Trump's tariffs, rising government debt, and geopolitical tensions. This is reflected in the recent rally of the S&P 500, with the index hitting a new all time high this week.
While US retail investors are ready to cash in on gold's record run, Asian buyers continue to buy gold bullion amid ongoing concerns about geopolitical conflict and local currency depreciation.
How can ASX investors gain exposure to gold?
ASX investors who believe the yellow metal has further to run have several options.
Firstly, they can buy physical gold bullion through the Perth Mint.
Secondly, they can gain exposure to gold through exchange traded funds (ETFs). For example, for an annual management expense of 0.15%, investors can buy the Global X Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: GXLD). GXLD is up 20% for the year to date and 45% over the past year.
Finally, ASX investors can buy ASX 200 gold miners. Macquarie's top pick in the gold sector today is Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM). On 27 June, Macquarie assigned a price target of $106 on Newmont shares, suggesting nearly 20% upside over the next 12 months.
