Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) shares started the week with a bang.
The ASX 200 stock finished the session 5% higher at $2.35.
But if you thought the gains were over, think again.
That's because one leading broker believes the agricultural chemicals company's shares can rocket from current levels.
What is being said about this ASX 200 stock?
According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts believe that the potential divestment of its Seeds business could be the key to unlocking value for shareholders. It said:
The commencement of a review of NUF's Seeds platform, that may ultimately result in its divestment, is in our view likely to be a material value catalyst for NUF. In a breakup scenario utilising what we would view as conservative multiples, we would see the scope to realise $3.73-5.16ps in value, where an exit from Seeds would likely highlight a crop protection business trading at a 25-50% discount to peers.
Speaking of the ASX 200 stock's Crop protection business, the broker believes it could be worth in the region of approximately $2.1 billion to $2.34 billion. It explains:
Global crop protection peers are trading at an average of 8.4x FY25e EBITDA, with Adama, arguably NUF's closest comparable trading at 7.6x FY25e EBITDA. Applying this range of outcomes to the NUF crop protection and residual corporate charges would imply a value of $2,115-2,338m for these assets.
Time to buy
In light of the above, Bell Potter thinks the market is severely undervaluing this ASX 200 stock.
The broker has reaffirmed its buy rating and $3.45 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $2.35, of 47% for investors over the next 12 months.
And while no dividends are expected in FY 2025, Bell Potter is expecting a 3.5% dividend yield in FY 2026 and then a 4.5% yield in FY 2027.
Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:
Our Buy rating is unchanged. The market looks to be capitalising a loss in Omega-3 that in essence could be unwound within a season. The underlying Crop Protection and residual seed platforms continue to perform well and if a value commensurate with recent industry transactions or peer trading multiples is achieved on the latter then the residual trading multiple implied for Crop protection is 4.4-5.5x FY25e EBITDA.
NUF's current share price is effectively implying either negligible for Seeds or a Crop Protection business worth 25-50% less than global peers.
