By now, ASX investors might be used to seeing Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares defy expectations and push into previously uncharted territory.
After all, that's what this ASX 200 bank stock has been doing for the past two years.
Back in February of 2023, CBA shares pushed past $110 for the first time ever. At the time, there wasn't a lack of commentary predicting that CBA had got ahead of itself, and that the bank was overvalued.
That analysis aged poorly.
CBA shares spent the 2024 calendar year breaking records. First, the bank pushed past $120 a share. Then $130, $140, $150, and finally $160 a share in November.
This has continued into 2025, with CBA pushing past $165 in February. We haven't quite got to $170 just yet, with the current record for CBA stock at $169.75 – seen earlier this month.
At the time of writing, CBA is trading at $166.48 a share, down 0.37% for the day thus far.
But given the trajectory CBA has been on over the past two years, how likely is it that this leading ASX 200 bank stock hits $200 before the year is out? That's what we'll be discussing today.
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Will CBA shares hit $200 in 2025?
Well, there are a few things to discuss here.
Firstly, most ASX experts still think that CBA shares are overvalued.
Earlier this month, my Fool colleague Bronwyn found that "the consensus recommendation from the experts is a 'strong sell'".
She pointed out that one broker, Macquarie, gave CBA shares an 'underperform rating', with a 12-month share price target of $105.
As we discussed earlier, though, these ratings should be taken with a grain of salt or two.
We should also note that CBA's share price hasn't been growing since 2023, thanks to any major improvements in the company's underlying business.
As we learned last August, Commonwealth Bank had a lacklustre 2024 financial year. It posted a 6% drop in statutory net profits after tax to $9.48 billion and a 2.3% drop in cash net profits to $9.84 billion.
Yet the bank's share price went on an epic run in FY2024, rising almost 30%. This tells us that sentiment is behind CBA's run, not the company's fundamentals.
This makes it hard to predict what will happen going forward. CBA could well have another rough year this year, and yet enjoy another 30% rise. If that does happen, $200 a share is well within the realms of possibility.
However, let's end with those famous words from legendary investor Benjamin Graham: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine".
