This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
Bad news for Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Consumer technology titan Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) may soon be adding artificial intelligence (AI)-powered web-search tools like OpenAI and Perplexity to its mix of search platforms offered to users of Apple's Safari web browser. Given the threat this poses to Google's dominance of the global search business -- which accounts for more than half the company's top line -- shares of parent company Alphabet fell 8% on Wednesday after this possibility was revealed.
The pullback makes superficial sense. What if, however, the market overreacted by jumping to an unnecessarily bearish conclusion?
That's arguably what happened, making already beaten-down Alphabet shares even more attractive to anyone considering taking on a new position in this powerhouse name.
Don't read too much into it, or worry too much about it
Take the possibility with a big grain of salt. It wasn't announced in a press release or during an official corporate presentation. Rather, it came out during a trial that doesn't even directly involve Apple. Merely serving as a witness for the antitrust case the U.S. Department of Justice is making against Alphabet, Apple's services chief Eddy Cue commented on Wednesday that he believes artificial intelligence-powered web search tools like OpenAI or Perplexity will eventually be added to the list of search engines made available to users of Apple's proprietary web browser, Safari. No likely time frames were given, nor were any guarantees made. Just a broad brushstroke. The bears took the ball and ran with it anyway, without any perspective on just how loose Cue's comment was.
Just for the sake of argument, however, let's say Apple's willingness to introduce these alternative search tools or even remove Google as Safari's default search engine is imminent. Is it actually a serious problem for Alphabet?
Probably not, for a couple of reasons.
One of those reasons is Google's existing dominance, as well as Safari's relatively limited use as a means of browsing the web. According to StatCounter, Google consistently handles 90% of the world's web queries. Some of those are made through Safari, where Google is currently the default search engine option. Many of them aren't, though. Safari's browser market share is still a fairly scant 17%, which is a distant second to Google Chrome's browser market share of 66%.
Could that 17% still make a measurable dent in Google's search business? Maybe, but it's not likely. See, according to online advertising research outfit Chitika, 97% of iPhone owners (by far the majority of Apple's iOS users) still use Google to search the internet, with roughly half of those searches being made with the Safari browser.
And this data underscores the other reason Alphabet shareholders may not want to sweat Apple's vague plans to offer other web-search options in the future. That's not Google's dominance of the search arena, but its overwhelming integration into so many people's use of the internet itself.
Google's Gmail alone boasts over 2.5 billion worldwide users, for instance, while Google Docs has eclipsed Microsoft's Office within the productivity software space. TV ratings outfit Nielsen says Google's YouTube is the United States' single-most-visited streaming video platform as well, facilitating more viewing time than industry powerhouse Netflix. And globally, more than 1 billion hours' worth of YouTube videos are accessed on television sets alone every single day.
The point is, Google is an inescapably important part of how and why many people connect to the World Wide Web, including for iPhone and iOS users. It's going to take a lot to sever Safari users' usage of Google's other services from their usage of Google's search engine. That's particularly true given how Google's AI-powered search is already in place and is being well received; Alphabet reports that during the first quarter of this year alone, its AI Overviews averaged on the order of 1.5 billion monthly users.
Not nearly enough threat to avoid Alphabet stock
Never say never, of course. It's possible a handful of Safari users could give alternative search tools like OpenAI, Perplexity, and Anthropic a try and end up sticking with them. It's also likely that one of the outcomes of the aforementioned trial could be an end to Google's payments to technology companies in exchange for making its search engine the default option for their web browsers.
This prospect isn't nearly as catastrophic as some are fearing it may be, though.
Again, Safari's reach is modest, and even when and where Safari is used, it's largely being used to facilitate a Google-based search. That's a habit that isn't apt to be kicked anytime soon, if ever. Indeed, the fact that we don't even think about how the word Google has become as much of a verb as it is a name ("just Google it") -- and for some people, almost synonymous with the internet itself -- underscores just how much this all-encompassing tech giant has ingrained itself into so many people's daily lives. That's the kind of staying power that isn't simply disrupted by a new web search option, even if that alternative is powered by AI.
Bottom line? Alphabet's search business might be dented by the advent of other AI-powered search options featured by Safari. It won't be major or permanent damage, though. If you liked Alphabet before Wednesday, there's still just as much to like now.
This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
