Top broker forecasts this quality ASX 200 dividend share could surge 45%!

A leading broker forecasts outsized gains ahead for this high-yielding ASX 200 dividend stock.

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Looking for a quality S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend share with a strong growth outlook?

Then you may want to have a look at Amcor plc (ASX: AMC) shares.

Shares in the global packaging giant closed down 3.84% on Thursday, trading for $14.04 apiece.

Unlike most ASX 200 dividend shares, Amcor pays out dividends on a quarterly basis rather than twice yearly.

Yesterday, when the company reported its March quarter results, management declared an unfranked interim dividend of 19.97 Aussie cents per share.

If you wish to bank that passive income payment, you'll have to own shares at market close on 20 May. Amcor stock trades ex-dividend on 21 May.

If we add in the prior three dividend payments, Amcor has (or will shortly have) paid out 78.6 cents per share in dividends over the last 12 months. At Thursday's closing price, this sees the stock trading on an unfranked dividend yield (partly trailing, partly pending) of 5.6%.

But according to Morgan Stanley analysts, Amcor has much more to offer investors than a juicy dividend yield.

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ASX 200 dividend share on the growth path

Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley upgraded Amcor shares to an overweight rating. The broker also increased its 12-month price target for the ASX 200 dividend share by 27% (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).

Much of this bullishness stems from Amcor's $13 billion merger with United States-based packaging giant Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE: BERY).

That merger was announced on 20 November and was completed ahead of schedule this week.

According to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Scott:

Amcor's track record points to them being able to deliver on this potential, creating significant earnings growth and valuation upside.

We see the Berry transaction as an imminent and potentially meaningful catalyst for Amcor, driving earnings per share accretion and consensus upgrades.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the ASX 200 dividend share to $20.31. That represents a potential upside of 45% from current levels.

Commenting on Amcor's merger with Berry on Thursday, CEO Peter Konieczny said, "Today is a defining day for Amcor as we closed our transformational merger with Berry Global."

Konieczny added:

Through this combination, Amcor has enhanced positions in attractive categories, a broader, more complete customer offering and expanded material science and innovation capabilities.

As a result, we believe we are now uniquely positioned to deliver more consistent and sustainable organic growth and further improve margins, in line with our strategy.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Amcor Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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