There's been no shortage of action in US President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office.
Since his 20 January inauguration, the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) is down 8%. Among the hardest hit popular US stocks have been Tesla and Nvidia, which have fallen 31% and 23% over the past 100 days, respectively.
During the first 100 days of his second term, Trump has focused on a wide range of initiatives.
While some have had little impact on global stock markets (such as renaming the 'Gulf of Mexico' the 'Gulf of America'), other policies have triggered widespread consequences.
In particular, Trump's trade policy and ongoing tariff announcements have been a major source of stock market volatility. Trump's 2 April Liberation Day brought panic to global equity markets, as reality set in.
Over the next 100 days, investors will be following the developments of three key areas: trade deals, the macroeconomic picture, and the Federal Reserve's independence.
Trade deals
Trump kicked off his tariff agenda with a bang, initially placing tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, then on most countries on Liberation Day.
Shortly after, he issued a 90-day pause. Then came an exemption for some electronics, such as iPhones. Most recently, an exemption for automakers has been given. According to Bloomberg, Trump is scheduled to sign an executive order preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies.
Between the pauses and exemptions on certain countries and industries, it's been difficult to keep up.
However, many countries are reportedly trying to reach deals with the Trump administration. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been central to the negotiations. Markets have focused on potential deals with major trading partners China and Japan.
President Trump, who famously wrote 'The Art of the Deal', has often referred to himself as the ultimate deal maker. Over the next 100 days, markets will be looking to see whether Trump can live up to his name or whether we enter an era similar to the 1930s, when a global trade war triggered a significant decline in global trade.
Macroeconomic developments
Given major economists' warning about the inflationary impact of tariffs, markets will be closely tracking monthly inflation data. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is provided monthly, with the next release scheduled for 13 May.
Investors will also be paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates and any commentary given by Chairman Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for 6-7 May. Markets have tipped the Central Bank to keep the Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. Any departure from this would surprise the market.
Central Bank independence
Last but not least, investors will be eager to see if the Federal Reserve is able to maintain its independence.
Last week, President Trump launched a fresh attack on Chairman Jerome Powell, which rattled markets. Specifically, investors did not appreciate Trump criticising Powell's decision to keep rates on hold, and inferring that he was contemplating firing him.
Trump has previously suggested that the President (specifically him) should be able to set interest rates. However, this incident appeared to be the first time the threat had been taken seriously.
On the importance of Central Bank independence, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CBS News:
I strongly hope that we do not move ourselves into an environment where monetary independence is questioned…Because that would undermine the credibility of the Fed.
President Trump has since backed away from his comments, reassuring markets that he has no intention of firing Powell. However, any change in this position over the next 100 days would be a particularly newsworthy event.
