Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are up more than 3% this week, boosted by the reaction to the ASX mining share's quarterly update. As the chart below shows, the company has had a volatile few months in 2025, and this week is no different.
Broker Macquarie said in a note that there were some things the analysts liked and some things they didn't like.
The operational update by Fortescue revealed how much iron ore it produced, what it cost to produce that iron ore, the price it sold the iron ore for, and a few other updates.
Let's get into what the broker thought of the ASX mining share's update and Fortescue shares overall.
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What the broker liked
Macquarie liked that the miner's production and shipments were "in line" with expectations. That was a good thing because of the wet season impacts felt across the Pilbara mining region during the period.
Fortescue processed 10% more ore than the derailment-impacted FY24 third quarter. With 73% of the mid-point of its production guidance achieved, Macquarie thinks Fortescue is "well positioned" to meet its guidance of 190mt to 200mt. Iron Bridge's production was "weak", but this was impacted by impacts from Tropical Cyclone Zelia.
Another thing that Macquarie liked was the net debt position of the business. Its net debt of US$2.1 billion beat what the market (consensus) was expecting of US$2.6 billion. Most of the difference related to an unwinding of working capital.
The broker also noted that its hematite (iron ore) unit costs of US$17.50 per tonne came in 4% below what the market (consensus) was expecting.
What Macquarie didn't like about Fortescue shares
The main negative for the broker from the update was the iron ore sale price that the high-grade Iron Bridge project achieved. In the third quarter of FY25, it achieved a price that was 100% of the 65% Platts Index (a measure of the grade of iron ore).
That price realisation was a 4% miss and "still a distance from price premiums on an iron adjusted basis", according to Macquarie.
The broker suggested the US$117 per tonne realised price "may indicate temporary placement discounts to encourage mill product trials."
Is the Fortescue share price a buy?
Macquarie is currently neutral on Fortescue shares.
The broker said:
This was a clean result, with FMG demonstrating its ability to deliver in its core business. The cost beat was pleasing, with strip ratios to be lowered. Whilst the net debt beat was helped by a working capital unwind, FY26 energy guidance may lead to lower burn rates.
The broker has a price target of $15 on the ASX mining share. A price target is where the broker thinks the share price will be in 12 months, so Macquarie is forecasting a fall of around 7% from here during the next 12 months.
