This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
The ongoing tariff saga has hit most stocks particularly hard this year, and for the first time in two-plus years, even big tech hasn't been immune. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, an exchange-traded fund that tracks "Magnificent Seven" stocks, is down close to 18% this year. While uncertainty is at an all-time high, investors are also circling the wagons and looking at stocks that are as cheap as they have been in six months or more.
Many investors remain bullish on artificial intelligence (AI) and believe few stocks will benefit more than those in the Magnificent Seven. Two of those stocks, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), are of interest after falling roughly 17% and 13%, respectively, this year (as of April 15). Here's the one with more upside, according to Wall Street analysts.
Apple: 18% upside
The consumer tech giant Apple found itself firmly in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump's tariffs after the administration announced higher rates on many countries, including China, where Apple makes many of its popular products. Apple reportedly makes over 80% of its products in China and generates significant revenue from sales in the country. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates that the cost of an iPhone could rise as high as $3,500 if made in the U.S. He also said it would cost Apple $30 billion over three years to shift just 10% of its supply chain to the U.S.
Trump paused the initial tariff rates but left higher rates in place on China, actually boosting those to 145%. However, investors have received more messaging from the White House that suggests the administration is more open to reaching some kind of trade deal with China. The president then exempted smartphones and other electronics made in China from tariffs, although he has said that they won't be exempt permanently.
In a recent research note, Ives stated that his base case is that Apple's earnings in 2025 and 2026 will decline by 10%, although they could be cut 15% to 20% in a worst-case scenario, assuming no trade deal happens with China. Still, Ives is long-term bullish on Apple, as are most on Wall Street. Of the 33 analysts who have issued research notes on the company over the past three months, 17 have a buy rating on the stock, 13 say hold, and three sell. The average price target of roughly $238 implies about 18% from current levels.
Although 145% tariffs on China are still in place, the recent temporary exemption on electronics seems like a path to an eventual permanent exemption for Apple's products. Apple got an exemption from tariffs during Trump's first term, and the company has already said it plans to spend $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years. The company has one of the most iconic brands in the world, a fortress balance sheet, and will benefit from deploying AI into its product set. The stock trades just under 28 times forward earnings, not far from its five-year average. More near-term pain may come, but long term, I suspect the company and stock will be fine.
Meta Platforms: 39% upside
On a positive note, Meta doesn't make and sell tangible products like Apple, so it doesn't have nearly as much to worry about from a supply chain perspective. However, many economists believe tariffs could lead to an economic slowdown, which would impact Meta, as the company generates a lot of money from advertising.
Ad budgets can get hit hard in a recession. But another positive twist for Meta is that it is considered a valuable source of ad spend for companies, so it may prove more resilient than most because companies may prioritize their spending on Meta ads over many other sources. According to Barrons, Morningstar Analyst Malik Khan said, "The allocations also shift during a period of macro uncertainty. You want to actually focus more on high return-on-ad-spend platforms, which Meta certainly is."
Over the last three months, 46 research analysts have issued research reports on Meta, with 42 rating the company a buy, three saying it's a hold, and one a sell. The average price target of roughly $726 implies about 39% upside. Meta had a lot going for the company even before the tariff drama began to play out, largely because investors began to see it as one of the main beneficiaries of AI. While all companies in the Magnificent Seven are investing heavily in AI, the benefits for some have not been so easy to grasp.
But for Meta, the benefits are clear. Conrad van Tienhoven, a portfolio manager at Riverpark Capital, said in February that he views the company as the largest beneficiary of AI behind Nvidia. According to the Financial Post, Tienhoven said, "Meta spent the money on AI solutions that have had an immediate impact on how it targets and measures ads, the outcome of which has been faster growth and a higher average revenue per user."
There are many more ways that AI can benefit the advertising space, whether through better data analysis and insights or the automation of ad buying and spending. Meta also trades right around its five-year forward price-to-earnings ratio, at roughly 20.8 times forward earnings.
This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
