What China's rare earths ban means for these ASX shares

Some ASX rare earths shareholders have seen rapid gains lately. Will it last?

China has pressed ahead with restrictions on rare earths metals and magnets in response to President Trump's tariffs policy.

While you may struggle to pronounce rare earths like yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium, they are critical ingredients for manufacturing countless electronic and defence technologies.

And unless you're well acquainted with the periodic table, you may not know your gallium from your germanium.

Female miner in hard hat and safety vest on laptop with mining drill in background.

Image source: Getty Images

Not so rare earths

Still, rare earths are everywhere: in the phone you're holding, the screen you're watching, and under the ground you're on top of.

According to the United States Geological Survey, more than half of global reserves of rare earths are found in China (38%) and Vietnam (19%).

Russia (10%) and Brazil (18%) are also significant players, with the rest of the world accounting for about 15%.

But when it comes to processing rare earths, that club is far more exclusive, with China exerting even more dominance.

China controls about 60% of global rare earths processing capabilities, with the United States refining about 15% of supply.

Another significant player is Australia, which processes about 8% of global rare earths supplies.

For decades, China has dominated the rare earths market.

It has long identified the strategic significance of rare earths and has used its dominant position as political leverage.

China's latest export restrictions on rare earths follow a series of increasingly stringent curbs on critical minerals from the Middle Kingdom.   

As China closes the door on access to processed rare earths, consumers of critical minerals must look elsewhere.

For shareholders of ASX-listed rare earths producers, this could be good news.

With a market cap of around $7.5 billion, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) is a major player in the critical minerals space.

The company bills itself as "the world's only significant producer of separated rare earth materials outside of China".

And it appears investors are keen to get exposure to that space.

Back in late January, Lynas shares were trading at around $6.16.

Today, they are changing hands for about $8 each.

That represents an increase of almost 30% over the past few months amid Trump's tariffs turmoil.

Arafura Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: ARU) shareholders have enjoyed similar gains over the last few months.

Arafura Rare Earths shares are now trading at around 19 cents apiece, having jumped about 70% since January.

ASX rollercoaster

While the ASX rare earths space has the potential to offer rapid gains for investors, it can be a white-knuckle ride and is not for the faint-hearted.

While the Lynas share price has gained 30% in the last few months, it's still slightly below its yearly high of $8.09.

For Arafura shareholders who bought a few months ago when the share price was hovering around 11 cents, the current upside is significant.

For those who bought back in 2023, when Arafura Rare Earths shares were trading at around 60 cents each, the current downside is even more significant.

I'm certainly interested in the rare earths space and will keep an eye on Lynas.

But for now, I'm steering clear.

Motley Fool contributor Steve Holland has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Happy miner with his arms folded.
Resources Shares

ASX 200 mining shares rebounded while consumer stocks fell last week

US AI stocks led our ASX 200 miners higher while hot inflation data sent retail shares lower.

Read more »

A woman standing on the street looks through binoculars.
Resources Shares

Here's the dividend forecast out to 2028 for Rio Tinto shares

Is Rio Tinto a gold mine for dividends?

Read more »

Male hands holding Australian dollar banknotes, symbolising dividends.
Resources Shares

If I invest $20,000 in Fortescue shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?

Will Fortescue continue to be a rewarding choice for passive income?

Read more »

Miner and company person analysing results of a mining company.
Resources Shares

Are ASX mining giants BHP, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto shares a buy for November?

What's ahead for the ASX mining giants?

Read more »

Mining vehicle at a mine site.
Resources Shares

2 ASX gold developers I'd buy with a spare $5,000 today

Both companies have a clear plan to develop their projects.

Read more »

Two workers on a tablet at a mine site, with mining machinery behind them.
Resources Shares

Is Rio Tinto becoming a better copper investment than BHP?

I like the long-term prospects of both companies, but their near-term copper production outlooks are looking quite different.

Read more »

Young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad, and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Resources Shares

Can strong lithium demand drive a tripling in this stock? Macquarie thinks so

Demand from batteries and electric vehicles is good news for Australian lithium miners.

Read more »

Cheerful smiling businesswoman sitting on a chair and typing business report on a laptop keyboard.
Resources Shares

Which outperforming ASX gold miner could double your money in 3 years? We compare 2 top candidates

Over the past 5 years, Catalyst Metals has risen more than 150%, while Genesis Minerals has surged more than 450%.

Read more »