CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), one of the crown jewels of the Australian healthcare sector, hasn't had the smoothest ride in April.
Amid rising macro uncertainty and market volatility, the biotech giant's shares have come under pressure — and the question on investors' minds is whether this weakness is a buying opportunity or a sign to steer clear.
Tariffs, trade wars, and trouble on the horizon?
A key concern for CSL shareholders this month stems from a bigger geopolitical story — U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose new tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals. While the current round of reciprocal tariffs hasn't directly hit CSL's products, Macquarie has flagged potential downside risks to earnings if the pharma sector is eventually swept into the fray.
According to the broker, around 28% of CSL's U.S. cost of goods sold (COGS) is exposed to high-risk jurisdictions. In a scenario where a 25% sector tariff is applied, firm-wide COGS could rise by 9.6%, which would reduce forecast 2026 EBITDA by up to 12% in the worst case.
It is also worth noting that the U.S. is a major market for CSL — accounting for around 49% of total revenue — and the majority of its manufacturing operations sit outside the U.S., which could complicate things if supply chains are disrupted.
Commenting on the company, the broker said:
CSL's production process, involving a global network of inter- connected operations, is highly dependent on the free movements of intermediate goods and raw materials across continents. Although both Behring and Seqirus operate sizeable manufacturing facilities in the US, we see moderate headwind from exposure to Germany (20% reciprocal tariff) and Switzerland (31%).
The prospect of retaliatory tariff on US exports could also disrupt the value chain of products derived from US-sourced blood plasma. Nevertheless, robust growth and high margin of innovative therapies allow the company to withstand the tariff headwind better. A key downside catalyst is the proposed 25% US sectoral tariff on all pharmaceuticals imports. We see another 6%/12% downside to our 2026 EBITDA estimates in the base/bear case.
Are CSL shares a buy or a sell?
Despite the noise, many brokers remain confident in CSL's long-term story and Macquarie is one of them.
It has retained its outperform rating and a 12-month price target of $360.30 on CSL shares. This is a sizeable 55% premium to its current share price of $233.08.
This is based on Macquarie expecting CSL to deliver impressive growth over the next few years.
Group revenue is forecast to climb from US$14.8 billion in FY 2024 to more than US$18 billion by FY 2027, with earnings per share rising at a compound annual growth rate of around 15%. Net debt is also expected to steadily decline, and return on equity is projected to expand from 16% to 20%.
Foolish takeaway
CSL shares are undeniably facing headwinds right now — but sometimes, volatility can be a gift.
With its global scale, strong margins, and leading position in plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialty medicines, CSL remains one of the highest quality names on the ASX.
So, with its shares down near 52-week lows, this could make it an opportune time for investors to jump in.
