Johns Lyng Group Ltd (ASX: JLG) is an ASX industrials stock. This insurance company has seen its share price tumble more than 64% over the last 12 months.
At the time of writing, shares are trading at $2.13 a piece, but were as high as $9.00 a share back in 2022.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials (ASX:XNJ) is up 8.8% during that span.
So is this an opportunity for investors, or the new normal for this industrials company?
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Reporting season pain
A large portion of the 64% fall in Johns Lyng Group shares came in February after the company failed to impress investors with its financial results.
According to the H1 FY25 report:
- Revenue dropped 6.1% drop year over year.
- Business-as-usual (BaU) revenue increased by 9% to $534.3 million.
- Catastrophe insurance (CAT) revenue dropped 67.7% year over year.
- Pre-tax earnings for the first half saw a 15.4% decrease compared to last year.
- Net profit of $20.8 million, down from $31 million this time last year.
Johns Lyng also adjusted its guidance for 2025, reducing FY25 revenue guidance by 5%.
Investors were quick to head for the hills following this news as the share price fell 32% following the release of this data.
Glass half full
For optimists looking for the positive in the recent HY FY25 report, Johns Lyng did extend major contracts in the US, and expand its trial with US insurer Brown & Brown Insurance (NYSE: BRO).
The company also completed a 87.5% acquisition stake in Keystone Group, which it says is "a leading Queensland-based provider of insurance building and restoration services".
Johns Lyng also cited weather conditions across Australia as another influence to its down first half of the year.
According to the company, conditions resulted in fewer insurance claims and CAT-related work due to a reduced number of disaster claims.
However, the selloff saw Johns Lyng slip out of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) last month.
Opportunity, upside or look elsewhere?
Investors will be in drastically different positions depending on whether they already own the stock or have been waiting to buy at a bargain.
If you own positions in John Lyng, you have endured an awful 12 months. As my colleague Zach Bristow explained last month, a 60% drop requires a 150% rise just to get back to even.
However, if you have been monitoring the stock over the last year, and you believe Johns Lyng has bottomed out, there is upside according to brokers.
Bell Potter has a target price of $2.50, suggesting approximately a 17% upside.
Others believe there is even more room for growth.
Online brokerage platform Selfwealth has an average price target of $3.10, which suggests more than a 45% upside.
This is aligned with analysts "buy" rating on TradingView and $3.12 one year price target (46.65% upside).
