Up 52% in 6 months, is this $22 billion ASX 200 stock now a sell?

A leading expert expects lower interest rates will negatively impact this surging ASX 200 stock.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 4.3% over the past 6 months, despite the best efforts of this surging ASX 200 stock.

The fast-rising company in question is Computershare Ltd (ASX: CPU).

Shares in the financial administration company are bucking the broader Trump tariff-driven market sell-down today as well, with shares flat in late afternoon trade at $38.15 apiece.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 1.1% at this same time.

With shares up 52% over the past six months, Computershare now commands a market cap north of $22.3 billion.

With that blistering performance in mind, Seneca Financial Solutions' Arthur Garipoli believes the ASX 200 stock may have run too hot too quickly (courtesy of The Bull).

A young woman sits at her desk in deep contemplation with her hand to her chin while seriously considering information she is reading on her laptop.

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ASX 200 stock 're-rated too quickly'

"This share registry services provider recently reported strong first half results in fiscal year 2025," said Garipoli, who has a sell rating on the ASX 200 stock.

"The company delivered a profit after tax from continuing operations of $286.5 million, an increase of 24.9% on the prior corresponding period. It also upgraded full year guidance," he said.

Garipoli added:

CPU has been a beneficiary of higher interest rates, which we believe have peaked. The stock has re-rated too quickly and is trading on lofty multiples, in our view. It may be time to consider locking in a profit.

What's the latest from Computershare?

Computershare reported its half-year results on 12 February. And investors responded by sending the ASX 200 stock to close up 15.5% on the day.

Among the highlights stoking investor interest, the company achieved a 6.4% year-on-year increase in management revenue to $1.5 billion. Management earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), excluding margin income, of $171 million were up 27.9%.

With a nod to Garipoli's concerns about the potential headwinds from lower interest rates, rate cuts during the half-year saw Computershare's margin income slide 0.8% year-on-year to $392 million.

"Margin income proved resilient, down less than 1% in the half, despite interest rates falling further than we expected," Computershare CEO Stuart Irving said on the day.

The company also upgraded its full-year FY 2025 earnings guidance by 7.5% to $1.35 per share.

In light of the strong performance, the ASX 200 stock increased its interim unfranked dividend by 12.5% to 45 Aussie cents per share.

Computershare stock trades on a 2.3% unfranked trailing dividend yield.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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