Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares have been positive performers over the past 12 months.
Despite a recent pullback, the banking giant's shares have risen 13% since this time last year.
And including dividends, you are looking at a return of approximately 19%.
That's significantly better than the ~7.5% total return generated by the ASX 200 index over the same period.
But those returns have been and gone. So, what on the cards for investors that buy at current prices? Let's see what a $10,000 investment could turn into.
$10,000 invested in Westpac shares
The Westpac share price last traded at $30.40, which means that a $10,000 investment (and an extra $1.60) would allow you to pick up 329 shares. What could they be worth in a year? Let's find out.
Firstly, it is worth noting that the broker community is largely bearish on Westpac shares (and the rest of the big four).
Though, that was the same 12 months ago and it didn't stop ASX bank shares from outperforming the market by some distance.
For example, Morgans currently has a reduce rating and $27.77 price target on its shares, whereas Macquarie has an underperform rating and $28.00 price target and Citi has a sell rating and $26.25 price target.
Citi's valuation would mean those 329 Westpac shares have a market valuation of $8,636.25. That's approximately $1,400 less than your original investment. Not great!
And while Citi expects $1.52 per share in fully franked dividends in FY 2025, which equates to $500.08 in dividend income, it still means a loss on investment of close to $1,000.
Are there any bulls?
Among the major brokers there is one outlier that is bullish on Australia's oldest bank and sees plenty of value in its shares.
That broker is UBS.
According to a note from last month, its analysts have put a buy rating and very lofty $40.00 price target on Westpac's shares.
This would mean a record high, ahead of the $39.62 the Westpac share price reached all the way back in 2015.
But importantly for would-be buyers of the bank's shares, it would turn those 329 units into $13,160 before dividends.
And if we add in the approximate $500 of dividend income that is expected by the market, the total market value of those shares becomes approximately $13,700. That's a very attractive return on investment of $3,700 or 37%.
Time will tell which broker makes the right call, but here's hoping it is UBS.
