Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares have recently seen their fair share of volatility. Since 7 February 2025, the ASX mining share has fallen by close to 20%, and since 7 March 2024, it has dropped by close to 40%.
As an ASX iron ore share, the business's short-term success is closely linked to movements in the iron ore price. According to Trading Economics, the price of the key commodity for steel has dropped to close to US$100 per tonne.
Fortescue's ability to make profits has reduced. Its production costs don't change much month to month, but a reduction in revenue dollars for its production largely falls straight off the net profit after tax (NPAT).
We saw this in the FY25 first-half result – revenue declined 20% to US$7.6 billion, underlying operating profit (EBITDA) fell 38% to US$3.6 billion, and attributable net profit sank 53% to US$1.55 billion.
With the latest result out of the way, let's examine what experts from UBS think about the potential earnings for Fortescue share owners.
First, FY25
When Fortescue announced its result, UBS maintained its sell rating on the business because of its cautious iron outlook and resulting weaker earnings (and cash flow) projects at a time of "robust" capital expenditure, which the broker believes is a risk to returns.
Aside from the outlook for commodity prices, UBS is monitoring a number of things.
First, the broker wants to see Fortescue 'iron out' performance issues in the air classifier at the Iron Bridge project, which is seeing a delay to the timing of the project's expected production capability of 22mt per year.
Second, UBS noted Fortescue has highlighted policy risk and possibly potential returns risk relating to its green hydrogen and ammonia projects. The company is also trying to accelerate momentum for wind and solar projects combined with batteries for decarbonisation and "repowering of industry." The broker thinks Fortescue should aim for "green electrons" rather than "green molecules."
Finally, UBS is projecting an iron ore price of US$100 per tonne in the third quarter of FY25 and US$99 per tonne in the second half of FY25.
Based on these expectations, UBS forecasts Fortescue could make a net profit of US$3.2 billion.
Then, FY26
Fortescue could see a slight profit rise in the 2026 financial year, though I'll point out that there are a lot of 'moving parts' affecting the ASX mining share's earnings next year (and the coming years), including the volatile iron ore earnings and its possible expenditure on green projects, that could significantly impact earnings.
UBS forecasts Fortescue's profit could rise to US$3.3 billion.
Next, FY27
Fortescue's net profit could decline by $300 million to almost exactly $3 billion in the 2027 financial year. This projection comes as the huge Simandou iron ore project in Africa may be acting as a headwind for the iron ore price while Fortescue continues to invest in green initiatives.
After that, FY28
Pleasingly, the 2027 financial year may be the worst of this projection series, and things may just get better over the next two financial years.
The broker forecasts Fortescue's net profit could rise by approximately US$500 million to US$3.5 billion in FY28.
Finally, FY29
The last year of these forecasts could be the best and strongest since FY24.
The broker suggests that Fortescue's profit could rise by another US$340 million in the 2029 financial year to US$3.85 billion. Time will tell if investors can look forward to a profit as high as that in a few years. If the iron ore price strengthens more than expected, these numbers may well be too conservative. But, if the iron ore price is even worse, it could be weaker than expected.
