BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is one of the most popular dividend stocks on the Australian market, and for good reason.
The mining giant has a long history of delivering shareholder returns through regular dividend payments.
But how will its dividends shape up over the next few years?
Let's take a look at the latest forecasts for BHP through to FY 2029 according to Goldman Sachs.
BHP dividend forecast in FY 2025
Goldman expects BHP to generate US$50.6 billion in revenue in FY 2025. Underlying EBITDA is forecast to come in at US$25.1 billion and earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 204 US cents. It believes this will support dividends per share of 102 US cents.
This equates to 160 Australian cents and based on its current share price of $41.26, this will mean a fully franked dividend yield of 3.9%.
FY 2026
Looking to FY 2026, revenue is expected to grow to US$53 billion according to Goldman. This represents a 4.7% increase from the previous year. Underlying EBITDA is forecast to rise to US$27.7 billion and EPS is projected to increase to 225 US cents. The broker expects this to lead to a dividend of 113 US cents per share.
This is the equivalent of 177 Australian cents and a fully franked dividend yield of 4.3%.
FY 2027
In FY 2027, the broker expects BHP's revenue to dip slightly to US$52.3 billion. As a result, underlying EBITDA is forecast to fall to US$26.4 billion and EPS to 217 US cents. This will mean a fully franked dividend of 108 US cents per share from BHP.
This converts to 169 Australian cents and would mean a fully franked yield of 4.2%.
FY 2028
Revenue is anticipated to rebound to US$53.1 billion in FY 2028, while underlying EBITDA is expected to hold relatively steady at US$26.1 billion. EPS is forecast to decline to 209 US cents, which would lead to an estimated dividend of 104 US cents per share according to Goldman.
This equates to 163 Australian cents and a fully franked yield of 4%.
FY 2029
Finally, looking to FY 2029, Goldman is forecasting revenue to grow to US$54.6 billion and underlying EBITDA to improve slightly to US$26.4 billion. EPS is projected to rise to 218 US cents, with the BHP dividend expected to follow suit. Goldman is forecasting a 109 US cents per share BHP dividend.
This equates to 171 Australian cents and a fully franked dividend yield of 4.15%.
Should you invest?
In response to its half year results last week, Goldman put a buy rating and $47.40 price target on BHP's shares.
This implies potential upside of almost 15% for investors over the next 12 months.
This could make it a good option for income investors seeking mining sector exposure.
